MSCI, a leading provider of investment decision support tools, is considering excluding companies with significant digital asset holdings from its Global Investable Market Indexes. This decision, expected on January 15, 2026, could have major implications for crypto treasury companies, potentially triggering substantial outflows from index-tracking funds.
The consultation, which concludes on December 31, is focused on whether companies holding more than 50% of their assets in Bitcoin or other digital assets should be included in the indexes. MSCI stated that some market participants view these digital asset treasury companies (DATs) as similar to investment funds, which are currently ineligible for index inclusion.
Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at BTC Markets, believes the odds of MSCI excluding DATs are high, noting that MSCI typically initiates consultations when they are already leaning towards a change. If MSCI decides to exclude DATs, index-tracking funds would be forced to sell their holdings in these companies, creating significant downward pressure.
A preliminary list identifies 38 crypto companies potentially affected by this decision, including Michael Saylor's Strategy, Sharplink Gaming, Riot Platforms, and Marathon Digital Holdings. JPMorgan analysts have warned that exclusion from major indexes would negatively impact Strategy's valuation credibility and hinder its ability to raise capital. The analysts also suggest that active managers, while not obligated to follow index changes, would likely view the exclusion negatively.
JPMorgan estimates that Strategy alone could face $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indices, with a potential $8.8 billion outflow if other index providers follow suit. Currently, passive funds tied to Strategy account for nearly $9 billion in market exposure. Strategy's stock has already fallen over 60% from its peak, reflecting broader crypto market turmoil and declining investor confidence.
The potential exclusion has raised concerns about Strategy's financial stability. The company's reliance on high-yield preferred shares has become a disadvantage as yields rise, and MSCI's recalibration of float metrics has created sector-wide uncertainty.
Analysts note that Strategy's recent underperformance is primarily due to fears of MSCI exclusion rather than movements in Bitcoin prices. The company's premium relative to its net asset value has collapsed, indicating that investor conviction has weakened. Should MSCI rule against digital asset treasury companies, Strategy's valuation could become almost entirely tied to its Bitcoin holdings.
While MSCI's decision is still pending, the possibility of exclusion highlights the growing scrutiny of companies heavily invested in cryptocurrencies and the potential risks they face in the traditional financial system. The outcome of MSCI's consultation could reshape digital-asset treasury models, potentially pushing companies to shift towards traditional assets amid market volatility.
