The latest conflict between India and Pakistan is rooted in the long-standing dispute over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism. Tensions have recently escalated following a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, where 26 civilians were killed.
The Pahalgam Attack and India's Response: India has accused Pakistan of involvement in the attack, pointing to Pakistan's history of supporting terrorism. Although no group has been officially identified as responsible, the Kashmir Resistance—an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)—claimed responsibility online. In response to the attack, India launched "Operation Sindoor," targeting nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, alleging they were used to plan the attacks. These strikes specifically targeted the Islamist militant groups Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba, which are based in Kashmir and seek the region's merger with Pakistan.
Pakistan's Response and Accusations: Pakistan has denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack, calling for a neutral investigation. Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned India's actions as an "unprovoked and blatant act of war," asserting that the strikes resulted in civilian casualties and posed a threat to commercial air traffic. They also accused India of using the "bogey of terrorism" to advance a false narrative and jeopardize regional peace.
Escalating Tensions and Military Actions: Following the Pahalgam attack, both countries have engaged in cross-border fire, expelled diplomatic personnel, closed land border crossings, conducted military drills, and suspended trade. A top Pakistani military official stated that New Delhi would carry out strikes, which heightened the tensions. India has also suspended its participation in an Indus River water-sharing agreement, a move criticized by Pakistan. Amid growing fears of war, Pakistani military and political figures have openly threatened to use nuclear weapons.
Historical Context and Modi's Strategy: The conflict between India and Pakistan originates from the partition of British India in 1947. The long-running dispute over Kashmir, with both countries claiming the region, has been a constant source of tension. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made the transformation and stabilization of Kashmir a central pillar of his legacy. After the 2019 attacks, which were seen as a major security failure, Modi militarized Kashmir and revoked many of the rights of its residents. His aggressive stance towards Pakistan has boosted his domestic political standing, increasing the pressure to demonstrate a firm response.
International Response and Concerns: The recent escalation has raised concerns internationally. US Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen expressed grave concern and urged both governments to exercise restraint and prioritize diplomatic engagement. Some analysts suggest that the absence of strong US backing may have tempered India's aggressive posturing. There are calls for the United States to work with Pakistan's military leadership to resurrect backchannels and encourage India to focus on bolstering US-India relations and addressing the shared threat from China.
The Risk of a Nuclear Conflict: A 2019 study has resurfaced, eerily predicting a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan in 2025, sparked by a high-casualty terror attack. The study outlines a scenario where a terror attack leads to military mobilization, escalating skirmishes, and ultimately, the use of nuclear weapons by both sides, resulting in catastrophic global consequences.
Informal Trade and Economic Impact: Despite the frozen trade relations since 2019, significant informal trade continues between India and Pakistan. While official figures show minimal trade, experts estimate that billions of dollars of hidden, backdoor trading persists. The latest hostilities and trade bans could impact this informal trade, which is primarily carried out by private entities rerouting and relabeling goods in third countries.
