The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala around May 27, 2025. While this is slightly later than initial predictions of May 24-25, it still marks a notably early onset, potentially the earliest since 2009, when the monsoon arrived on May 23. The usual onset date for the monsoon in Kerala is June 1, and its early arrival promises relief from the intense summer heat and is expected to boost India's agricultural economy.
The IMD had initially projected the monsoon to arrive by May 27, with a model error of plus or minus four days. The current forecast suggests the monsoon will arrive on or around that date. If the monsoon arrives as predicted, it will be the earliest onset over mainland India since 2009. Typically, the southwest monsoon arrives in Kerala around June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8, withdrawing from northwest India around September 17 and completely receding by October 15.
This year, the IMD forecasts above-normal cumulative rainfall for the monsoon season, ruling out the possibility of El Niño conditions, which are usually linked to below-average rainfall in India. Specifically, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5%. The LPA for the season rainfall over the country for 1971-2020 was 87 cm.
An early and strong monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture-dependent economy. It is expected to boost the sowing of major crops such as rice, maize, cotton, soybean, and other oilseeds. The Centre has set a record foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for 2025-26, up 3.8% from the 341.55 million tonnes target for 2024-25, banking on a favorable monsoon. Sanjeev Asthana, president of The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), stated that a timely and adequate monsoon would provide a much-needed boost to India's agricultural economy.
In addition to the monsoon forecast, the IMD has predicted heavy to very heavy rainfall over the west coast, including Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Kerala, and adjoining peninsular India, between May 20 and 26. Extreme heavy rains were expected over north Kerala on May 20 and over coastal and ghat areas of Karnataka on May 20 and 21. Over the next three days, heavy to very heavy rainfall, with thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over northeast India and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
While the monsoon's early arrival is generally positive, there are some concerns about regional rainfall distribution. The IMD has indicated that while most parts of the country are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, some parts of northwest India, northeast, and southern peninsular India may experience below-normal rainfall.
Currently, Mumbai is experiencing pre-monsoon showers, with a yellow alert issued for Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, and other parts of Maharashtra, warning of thunderstorms, lightning, moderate rainfall, and gusty winds. Bengaluru is also facing heavy rains, causing severe waterlogging and traffic disruptions.
