The relationship between India and Bangladesh is currently navigating a complex and potentially transformative period. Following the student-led mass uprising in July-August 2024 and the subsequent departure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had been in power since 2009, the rise of an interim government in Bangladesh has introduced new dynamics in diplomatic relations with India. With elections anticipated in late 2025 or early 2026, the question looms: can these elections stabilize the relationship, or will they further complicate matters?

For years, Sheikh Hasina's Awami League fostered strong ties with India, built upon historical connections dating back to India's support for Bengali nationalists during the 1971 Liberation War. Under her leadership, cooperation flourished in areas like security, trade, and connectivity, alongside addressing long-standing issues such as land and maritime border disputes. However, this close relationship also fueled resentment within Bangladesh, with critics alleging that it had become "lopsided" in favor of India.

The current interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, appears to be charting a different course. While publicly committed to maintaining positive relations, there's a clear effort to diversify foreign policy and reduce reliance on any single power. Yunus's visit to Beijing, marked by pledges of over $1 billion in investment and agreements on infrastructure and military cooperation, signals this shift. This recalibration isn't necessarily about breaking away from India, but rather about asserting Bangladesh's right to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape and expand its options.

Several factors contribute to the strain in India-Bangladesh relations. Anti-India sentiment has been growing in Bangladesh, fueled by unresolved issues like water sharing of the Teesta River, border killings, and perceptions of Indian interference in domestic politics. India's recent move to restrict select Bangladeshi exports via land ports, allegedly in response to trade barriers imposed by Dhaka, has further exacerbated tensions. Concerns also exist regarding the safety and rights of minorities in Bangladesh, particularly the Hindu community, an issue that India has raised with the interim government.

Despite these challenges, the historical, cultural, and economic ties between the two nations remain strong. India is Bangladesh's second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $14 billion in FY 2023-24. The two countries share a 4,096-km-long border, facilitating both formal and informal trade networks. Furthermore, cooperation continues in areas like connectivity and infrastructure, with initiatives to improve railway, port, and waterway links.

For India, a stable and friendly Bangladesh is crucial for its security and economic interests, particularly for maintaining stability in its northeastern region and fostering regional cooperation in the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, India must approach the upcoming elections with caution, focusing on building a "people-centric relationship" that transcends political affiliations. This involves proactively engaging with the interim government, addressing concerns about trade imbalances and border management, and ensuring the protection of minority rights.

The outcome of the upcoming elections in Bangladesh will significantly impact the trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations. A free, fair, and credible election could produce a more stable and legitimate government, capable of sustaining a balanced foreign policy and fostering trust with international partners. However, a flawed or contested election could further fuel anti-India sentiment and complicate bilateral ties. Regardless of the election results, it is imperative for both nations to prioritize mutual respect, open dialogue, and pragmatic collaboration to ensure a stable and prosperous future for the region.