India is grappling with a severe heatwave, with temperatures soaring to unprecedented levels, causing immense distress and raising serious concerns about public health. While the immediate impact of the heatwave is visible through rising temperatures and strained resources, the true extent of its impact on mortality remains largely unknown. The lack of comprehensive data and standardized reporting mechanisms obscures the actual number of heat-related deaths, leading to a significant underestimation of the crisis's severity.
Reports indicate that dozens have already succumbed to the heat, with states like Bihar, Odisha, Rajasthan, and Delhi bearing the brunt of the casualties. In the last week of May 2024, at least 18 deaths were attributed to heatstroke as temperatures climbed as high as 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). However, these figures are likely just the tip of the iceberg. Public health experts suggest that the official count of heat-related deaths is significantly lower than the actual number, with estimates indicating that only a fraction of cases are properly recorded. Former WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan has cautioned that fatalities represent only "the very tip of the iceberg", and that for every one death, there are probably 20 people who are suffering the impact of heat.
Several factors contribute to this underreporting. Determining the exact cause of death during a heatwave is challenging, as heatstroke can exacerbate pre-existing conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Many victims may die at home or in transit to hospitals, without their deaths being officially attributed to the heatwave. Additionally, inconsistencies in data collection and reporting across different states further complicate the process of accurately assessing the impact of extreme heat on mortality.
The consequences of underreporting are far-reaching. Without accurate data, it becomes difficult for authorities to assess the true scale of the crisis, allocate resources effectively, and implement targeted interventions to protect vulnerable populations. Moreover, the lack of reliable data hinders efforts to understand the long-term health impacts of heatwaves and develop effective strategies for mitigating their effects.
Recognizing the urgent need for better data, the Indian government has initiated efforts to improve surveillance and reporting of heat-related deaths. However, significant challenges remain. There is a need for standardized protocols for identifying and recording heat-related deaths, as well as enhanced training for healthcare workers and data collectors. Investing in robust data infrastructure and strengthening coordination between different government agencies are also crucial steps towards improving the accuracy and completeness of heatwave mortality data.
Beyond the immediate health impacts, heatwaves also have significant economic and social consequences. A recent Lancet study revealed a 55% rise in deaths due to extreme heat between 2000-2004 and 2017-2021. Exposure to heat also caused a loss of 167.2 billion potential labour hours among Indians in 2021, resulting in loss of incomes equivalent to about 5.4% of the country's GDP. Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can lead to decreased productivity, increased healthcare costs, and heightened social tensions, particularly in already vulnerable communities. It can also worsen mental health, and increase domestic violence.
As India braces for increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves in the years to come, it is imperative to address the data gaps and improve our understanding of the true impact of these events on mortality. By investing in better data collection, strengthening public health infrastructure, and implementing effective heat action plans, India can better protect its citizens from the devastating consequences of extreme heat.
