A new Pew Research Center study has revealed significant shifts in the global religious landscape between 2010 and 2020. The study, which analyzes data from 201 countries and territories, highlights Islam as the fastest-growing religion worldwide, driven primarily by natural demographic growth. Here are six key takeaways from the report:
1. Islam's Unprecedented Growth: The global Muslim population experienced a remarkable increase of 347 million people between 2010 and 2020. This growth surpasses the combined growth of all other religions during the same period. This surge is primarily attributed to Muslims having more children on average and a younger population compared to other major religious groups. Specifically, Muslim women had an average of 2.9 children each from 2015-2020, compared to 2.2 children per non-Muslim woman.
2. Christianity Still Dominates, but Declining Proportionally: While Christianity remains the world's largest religion with 2.3 billion adherents, its share of the global population has decreased. Christians constituted approximately 29% of the world's population in 2020, down from 31% in 2010. Although the number of Christians grew by 122 million during this period, the overall population growth rate of non-Christians was higher.
3. The Rise of the "Nones": The religiously unaffiliated, often referred to as "nones" (atheists, agnostics, and those not identifying with any particular religion), are the second-fastest-growing group. This demographic increased significantly in North America, where it grew by 13 percentage points between 2010 and 2020, reaching 30.2%. Europe also saw a substantial increase of 6.6 percentage points, reaching 25.3%. Latin America-Caribbean experienced a rise of 4.1 percentage points in the same period. Globally, the religiously unaffiliated population continues to grow, especially through people switching away from Christianity.
4. Demographic Factors Drive Muslim Growth: The Pew study emphasizes that the expansion of the Muslim population is largely due to natural demographic factors. Muslims tend to have more children and are younger on average than members of other major religions. This younger population structure means a larger proportion of women are entering or are already in their childbearing years, contributing to a higher overall birth rate.
5. Regional Variations: The growth of Islam is primarily concentrated in Muslim-majority countries, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is home to the largest Muslim population. This region saw a 16.2% increase in its Muslim population share between 2010 and 2020. While most of the growth occurred in Muslim-majority countries, some countries with smaller Muslim populations, such as Kazakhstan, Benin, and Lebanon, also saw increases in the share of Muslims.
6. Limited Impact of Religious Conversion: The study suggests that religious conversion has a minimal net impact on Muslim population growth at the global level. The number of people converting to Islam is roughly equivalent to the number leaving the faith. This indicates that natural demographic factors, rather than religious switching, are the primary drivers of Islam's expansion. However, it is worth noting that religious switching is more prominent among Christians, contributing to the growth of the religiously unaffiliated population.
Looking ahead, projections indicate that Islam will continue to grow rapidly, potentially rivaling or surpassing Christianity as the world's largest religious group by the end of the 21st century. Factors such as high fertility rates and a youthful population will continue to fuel this growth, particularly in regions like sub-Saharan Africa. While the religiously unaffiliated population is also on the rise in certain parts of the world, the global trend suggests that the majority of the world's population will continue to identify with a religion, with Islam and Christianity at the forefront.
