The cryptocurrency community is abuzz with anticipation as the possibility of US stablecoin regulation becomes increasingly likely. Fueling this optimism is the online betting platform Polymarket, which, as of today, June 19, 2025, assigns an 89% chance to the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act becoming law before 2026. This prediction reflects the market's confidence following the bill's recent passage in the Senate.
The GENIUS Act, which cleared the Senate with a 68-30 vote, aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to the value of a more stable asset, like the U.S. dollar. Proponents say that bringing stablecoins under regulatory purview would boost the legitimacy of the digital asset and encourage its broader adoption by banks, fintech companies, retailers, and other institutions.
The bill mandates that stablecoin issuers hold reserves equal to the value of the coins they've issued, safeguarding against collapses like the infamous Terra-Luna stablecoin crash of 2022. It also defines stablecoins, clarifies that they are not securities or commodities, and outlines requirements for issuers and redemption practices.
The GENIUS Act has been touted as a landmark achievement for the crypto industry, which has spent considerable resources lobbying for clearer regulatory guidelines. Supporters believe it will modernize the American payment system and integrate digital assets into the U.S. economy responsibly. Senator Bill Hagerty, a key sponsor of the bill, believes it "ushers in a new era of payments," allowing businesses and individuals to settle payments nearly instantaneously.
However, the bill's journey to becoming law is not without its challenges. It now faces the House of Representatives, where its future remains uncertain. Republicans in the House are considering potential changes to the Senate-passed version and whether to combine it with a broader market structure bill.
Concerns have also been raised about potential conflicts of interest related to President Trump's involvement in the crypto industry, particularly his family's stake in World Liberty Financial, a crypto project that launched its own stablecoin, USD1. Some Democrats pushed for stronger provisions to safeguard against corruption while protecting consumers, the financial system, and national security. While some changes were made, including disclosure requirements for members of Congress and executive branch officials holding over $5,000 in stablecoins, some Democrats remain unsatisfied. Senator Elizabeth Warren, for instance, argues the bill does little to prevent someone from bribing the president with stablecoins.
Despite these hurdles, the crypto community remains optimistic, as reflected in Polymarket's high probability assessment. The passage of the GENIUS Act could open the door for more companies to issue stablecoins for settling transactions. Tech giants like Apple and Google are reportedly considering launching their own tokens. Should the GENIUS Act become law, it could mark a significant step towards mainstreaming cryptocurrency and transforming the financial landscape.
