India is reportedly seeking to amend the Ganges River Water Treaty with Bangladesh, a move that could have significant implications for both nations. Signed in 1996, the treaty governs the sharing of water from the Ganges River, particularly during the dry season, and is set to expire in 2026. As the expiration date approaches, India has indicated its desire to renegotiate the agreement, citing its increasing developmental needs and the impact of climate change.

The Ganges River is a vital resource for both India and Bangladesh, supporting agriculture, fisheries, drinking water supplies, and the overall ecology of the region. The existing treaty was hailed as a breakthrough when it was signed, resolving decades of tensions over water sharing. It stipulates a formula for water division at the Farakka Barrage, a structure built by India to divert water for Kolkata Port. Under the treaty, during the direst period of the dry season (March 11 to May 10), each country is guaranteed a minimum of 35,000 cusecs of water in alternating periods. The treaty also outlines how water is to be shared based on the flow volume, with specific allocations for different flow ranges.

Several factors are driving India's push to amend the treaty. One key reason is the country's growing demand for water to support its expanding economy and population. India requires more water for irrigation, industrial use, and to maintain the navigability of the Kolkata Port. Indian officials have stated that a new agreement should reflect these increased domestic water requirements. Moreover, there are concerns that the current treaty has disrupted the original purpose of the Farakka Barrage, which was to continuously divert 40,000 cusecs of water to the Kolkata Port. Officials claim that the treaty has led to issues such as slope failure, bed erosion, and heavy siltation, reducing the port's efficiency. Additionally, the NTPC power plant located there is facing water crises.

Climate change is another critical factor influencing the renegotiation. Both India and Bangladesh recognize that any new treaty must be climate-resilient and incorporate adaptive water-sharing rules for extreme conditions. Experts suggest that the revised treaty should include improved data sharing, joint flood management strategies, and flexibility in allocation schedules that can adjust to real-time water flow. Climate change has impacted the flows of cross-border rivers in India and Bangladesh, making it crucial to factor these changes into any new agreement.

India is reportedly considering a shorter duration for the amended treaty, proposing a 10-15 year term instead of the original 30 years. This shorter duration would provide greater flexibility and adaptability for both nations moving forward. However, India's stance has made Bangladesh anxious, especially after India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following a terrorist attack. Bangladesh relies heavily on the Ganges for its water needs, particularly during the dry season and any reduction in its share could have catastrophic consequences for its agriculture, fisheries, and drinking water supply.

The negotiations are expected to be complex, with both countries needing to balance their competing interests. Bangladesh has consistently emphasized the importance of maintaining its water share, while India is seeking to secure more water for its developmental needs. The role of the West Bengal government is also crucial, as it must approve any water-sharing pact or its renewal. The state government has previously opposed agreements due to concerns that they would leave parts of West Bengal dry.

Despite the challenges, both countries have strong incentives to renew cooperation over the Ganges. Allowing the treaty to lapse could create uncertainty and distrust, damaging bilateral relations. Finding a balance between India's developmental demands and Bangladesh's need for water will require deft diplomacy, scientific management, and a spirit of compromise. The treaty's terms will significantly impact the future of diplomatic relations between India and Bangladesh for decades to come.