According to a recent US intelligence report, Pakistan continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, perceiving India as an existential threat. This assessment highlights the ongoing tensions and strategic competition between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, with implications for regional and global security.
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report underscores that Pakistan views India as an existential threat and remains committed to expanding its nuclear capabilities. This includes the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, designed to offset India's conventional military advantage. Pakistan is also improving the security of its nuclear materials and command-and-control systems. Despite facing economic challenges, Pakistan has sustained its nuclear modernization efforts. In October 2024, Pakistan successfully tested its Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile, further demonstrating its commitment to upgrading its delivery systems.
Several factors contribute to Pakistan's perception of India as an existential threat. The long-standing dispute over Kashmir remains a primary source of tension, with both countries maintaining an uneasy ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) since February 2021. Cross-border skirmishes and accusations of internal interference further exacerbate the relationship. India's growing military strength and its reconsideration of its "No First Use" nuclear policy have also heightened Pakistan's concerns. The rise of right-wing Hindu political movements in India and associated communal violence have added another layer of complexity to the security dynamic.
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is estimated to include approximately 170 warheads. The country is developing new types of nuclear weapons, including short-range tactical weapons, sea-based cruise missiles, and longer-range ballistic missiles. Pakistan's nuclear strategy emphasizes "full spectrum deterrence" against India, with a mix of longer-range missiles and dual-capable aircraft for strategic missions, and short-range systems to counter military strikes below the strategic level. Unlike India, Pakistan has not declared a "No First Use" policy, and instead emphasizes smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to counter India's larger conventional forces.
The US has long been concerned about the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. These concerns include the possibility of internal chaos, terrorist attacks against nuclear facilities, hostilities breaking out with India, or extremist elements taking charge of the government or military. The US is reported to maintain a contingency plan to seize control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons in critical scenarios.
Looking ahead, the DIA report suggests that Pakistan's military priorities will likely include cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbors, rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernization. Pakistan's close military ties with China are expected to continue, with China remaining a primary source of support for Pakistan's military modernization efforts.
The ongoing nuclear modernization efforts in Pakistan, coupled with its perception of India as an existential threat, underscore the complex and dangerous security dynamics in the region. The risk of escalation between the two countries remains a significant concern for the international community.
