Indian stock markets are poised for an interesting trading day on June 30, 2025, with several factors suggesting a potentially positive start. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex are expected to open higher, influenced by positive global cues, easing geopolitical tensions, and optimism surrounding US-China trade relations.
Global and Domestic Cues
The Gift Nifty is trading higher, hinting at a mildly upbeat opening for the Nifty 50. Strong closing gains were observed on the previous Friday, with the Nifty up by 0.35% and the Sensex by 0.36%, setting a stable tone for the week. European markets also traded higher, and U.S. futures are in the green, indicating a continued global risk appetite as investors watch key economic data. Asian markets also traded higher.
Easing tensions between Iran and Israel, along with positive developments in US-China trade talks, have improved market sentiment. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have shown a mixed trend but remain net buyers for the month, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continue to strongly support the market with significant net inflows.
Nifty 50 Outlook
Last week, the Nifty 50 decisively broke out, rising 2.09% and forming a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe. The index is trading above both the 21-day and 55-day EMAs, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Technical indicators like RSI and MACD also suggest strength and potential for further upside. Immediate resistance is seen at 25,750, and a breakout above this level could lead to a rally toward 26,000. However, Nifty 50 is close to its resistance at 25,800 levels, so caution is advised. The index is at the verge of filling the gap formed on October 3rd of the previous year, which can also act as a resistance.
According to technical analysis, the broader trend remains strong as long as the Nifty sustains above the 24,000–24,500 range. Immediate resistance is observed at the 26,000 mark. Support is expected around 25,500, and a break below this level could lead to consolidation. Overall resistance is anticipated between 25,600 and 26,000, while stronger support lies in the 25,200 to 24,600 range.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty also delivered a bullish breakout, moving past the key 56,000–57,000 resistance band. It ended the week at 57,443, strengthening the positive sentiment in the financial sector. The index now has a firm support base at the 56,000 level. As long as Bank Nifty sustains above this mark, continued upside toward the 58,500–59,000 levels is highly probable in the coming weeks.
Technically, Bank Nifty is trading in the 5th wave of an impulse pattern, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. A breakout from the recent consolidation range was confirmed with rising volume and a bullish weekly candle. As per Fibonacci extension levels, the next potential upside targets lie at 58,700 and 60,000, while immediate support is placed near 56,700.
Key Stocks and Sectors
Banking stocks continue to show solid momentum, backed by broad-based buying in both private and PSU banks. Stocks like IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI are expected to drive gains. The NIFTY Financial Services index is also expected to perform well, driven by gains in ICICI Bank, HDFC Asset Management, and SBI.
Trading Strategy
Given the current market conditions, a "buy on dips" strategy is recommended, with an emphasis on selective stock picking. Positional traders can look to buy near support levels. However, traders should remain alert, especially on June 30, a key inflection day. It's crucial to stick to disciplined setups, use time-level alignment, and let price action confirm trades.
Important Factors to Watch
Overall, the Indian stock market is expected to start the week on a positive note, driven by global cues, improved sentiment, and strong technical indicators. However, traders should remain cautious and monitor key factors that could influence market direction.
