President Trump's upcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, while ostensibly focused on de-escalating the conflict in Ukraine, is unlikely to ease the complex web of tensions between India, the United States, and Russia. These tensions are rooted in trade disputes, geopolitical considerations, and differing strategic priorities.

US-India Relations: A Relationship Under Strain

The relationship between the US and India, while historically complex, has faced increasing strain under President Trump's administration. Recent friction has emerged from trade disputes, particularly the imposition of tariffs on Indian goods. In July 2025, the US announced a 25% tariff on Indian exports, citing India's continued purchase of Russian oil and arms, high tariffs on US goods, and non-tariff trade barriers. This was followed by an additional 25% tariff, bringing the total penalty to a hefty 50% if India continues its trade with Russia. These tariffs are ostensibly related to US pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but they reflect a broader pressure on New Delhi.

These tariffs have significant implications for India's economy. Analysis suggests that the direct export loss could be around 0.3%-0.4% of India's GDP in FY2026. Key sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services are expected to face sharp cost increases and loss of competitiveness. Financial giants have warned that such tariffs could further slow India's already weakened GDP growth.

Beyond economics, geopolitical factors also contribute to the strained relationship. The US remained notably distant in its response to military escalation between India and Pakistan in May 2025, creating a sense of abandonment in New Delhi. Despite these tensions, the US still sees India as a counterbalance to China, and India views the US as a key partner in technology, defense, and energy cooperation.

India-Russia Relations: A Resilient Partnership

India and Russia share a "Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership," which has expanded beyond traditional military ties to include economic, energy, space, and educational cooperation. In April 2025, the two countries celebrated 78 years of diplomatic ties, highlighting a resilient relationship built on strategic pragmatism. Bilateral trade has reached over US$60 billion in 2024-25, with Russia being a major supplier of crude oil, coal, fertilizers, and defense equipment to India.

Amidst the ongoing geopolitical turmoil and US pressure, India has reaffirmed its commitment to strategic autonomy and its relationship with Russia. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's visit to Russia in August 2025, despite the threat of US tariffs, signaled India's commitment to its foreign policy. Prime Minister Modi and President Putin have also reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening India-Russia relations.

The Impact of the Trump-Putin Meeting

While the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska aims to address the conflict in Ukraine, it may not necessarily ease the tensions between India, the US, and Russia. The US is using tariffs as a tool to pressure Russia. The Trump administration has warned of higher secondary tariffs on India if the talks between the US President and Russia's President Vladimir Putin don't go well in Alaska on Friday. India, on the other hand, has strongly opposed the US secondary tariffs, emphasizing that its oil imports are based on market factors and its energy security needs. The US Treasury Secretary also mentioned that sanctions on Russia could either be intensified or relaxed, depending on the outcome of the meeting.

Furthermore, any potential deal involving territorial concessions in Ukraine could raise concerns among European partners and potentially destabilize the region. The exclusion of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy from the summit has also drawn criticism.

In conclusion, while the Trump-Putin meeting may have implications for the conflict in Ukraine and US-Russia relations, its impact on the tensions between India, the US, and Russia is less clear. The existing trade disputes and differing strategic priorities are likely to persist, regardless of the outcome of the summit. India's commitment to its strategic autonomy and its relationship with Russia will continue to be a key factor in navigating this complex geopolitical landscape.