The Dalai Lama has publicly declared that his reincarnation will be determined by Tibetan tradition, a move that directly challenges China's authority and has significant implications for Xi Jinping's leadership. This announcement, made on the eve of his 90th birthday, counters Beijing's long-standing claim that it alone has the right to approve the next Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama stated that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, a non-profit organization he founded, will be responsible for recognizing his future reincarnation, in consultation with other Tibetan Buddhist leaders. He emphasized that no one else holds the authority to interfere in this matter.
China insists that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama must be approved by the central government, citing a 2007 law mandating that all reincarnations of Tibetan "living Buddhas" must adhere to Chinese laws and regulations. They also claim the next Dalai Lama must be born inside China, with any foreign-born successor deemed illegitimate. China's Foreign Ministry reiterated that the reincarnation must follow the principle of domestic search, using the "golden urn" process, and be approved by the central government. This process, dating back to the Qing Dynasty, involves drawing lots from a golden vessel containing the names of potential candidates.
The Dalai Lama's declaration sets the stage for a potential clash between his followers and the Chinese government. Many observers believe there will be two Dalai Lamas: one chosen by the Chinese government and another recognized by Tibetan monks loyal to the current Dalai Lama. This division has historical precedent; in 1995, after the Dalai Lama recognized a six-year-old boy as the Panchen Lama (the second-highest figure in Tibetan Buddhism), the boy disappeared, and China appointed its own Panchen Lama, who is largely viewed as illegitimate by Tibetan Buddhists.
The Dalai Lama's decision to have his successor identified outside of China is significant. In his book "Voice for the Voiceless," he stated that the new Dalai Lama would be born in the "free world" to continue his mission of advocating for compassion, Tibetan Buddhism, and the aspirations of the Tibetan people. He has also suggested that the next Dalai Lama could be a woman. This stance aims to prevent China from exploiting the reincarnation process for its political purposes.
For Xi Jinping, the Dalai Lama's stance presents a complex challenge. China views the Dalai Lama as a separatist and a threat to its control over Tibet. By controlling the reincarnation process, China hopes to install a Dalai Lama who is loyal to the Chinese government, thereby solidifying its authority over the region. China considers the Dalai Lama to be a symbol of Tibetan resistance and fears that an independent successor could fuel separatist sentiments. Some experts suggest that Xi Jinping has implemented a "Xi Jinping Thought on Reincarnation" to justify the CCP's control over the process.
The Dalai Lama's move also carries geopolitical implications. The selection of his successor is likely to become a point of contention between China and other countries, particularly India, where the Dalai Lama has lived in exile since 1959. India has provided refuge to the Dalai Lama and many Tibetan refugees, and the location of the next Dalai Lama's birth will likely be a sensitive issue in Sino-Indian relations.
Ultimately, the Dalai Lama's decision underscores the ongoing struggle for Tibetan autonomy and religious freedom. By entrusting the selection of his reincarnation to his trust, he seeks to ensure the continuation of Tibetan Buddhism and its values, free from Chinese interference. This defiance poses a direct challenge to Xi Jinping's authority and highlights the unresolved tensions between Tibet and China.
