The succession of the Dalai Lama, a revered figure in Tibetan Buddhism, is increasingly becoming a heated geopolitical issue, raising the specter of two rival Dalai Lamas. The current Dalai Lama, who recently reaffirmed that the centuries-old institution will continue after his death, has explicitly stated that the next Dalai Lama should be identified per traditional Tibetan Buddhist practices, excluding any interference from China. This stance directly challenges China's claim to have sole authority over the selection process, intensifying the long-standing tensions between Beijing and the Tibetan exile community.
China insists that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama must adhere to Chinese laws and regulations, including a selection process approved by the central government. They emphasize that the next Dalai Lama must be found within China. This position is viewed by many as a means for China to exert control over Tibetan Buddhism, neutralize the Tibetan independence movement, and solidify its authority over Tibet. China's approach includes the potential use of the "Golden Urn" system, a practice dating back to the Qing Dynasty, where the names of candidates are placed in a golden vessel, and one is chosen by lot. However, the current Dalai Lama has expressed reservations about this method, questioning its spiritual authenticity.
The possibility of two rival Dalai Lamas emerges from this conflict. One would be chosen by Tibetan Buddhist leaders following traditional methods, likely from outside China, while the other would be appointed by the Chinese government. The Dalai Lama himself acknowledged this possibility in a 2019 interview, suggesting that a Dalai Lama chosen by China would not be respected. Experts anticipate that the Dalai Lama will be chosen upon his death, where a young boy will be found representing the reincarnation of the 14th Dalai Lama to continue his work.
This situation presents significant challenges. For Tibetans, the Dalai Lama is not only a spiritual leader but also a symbol of Tibetan identity, autonomy, and peaceful resistance to Chinese authority. The insistence on a Tibetan-controlled reincarnation is a firm stance against China's efforts to dominate religious and cultural life in Tibet. However, for those within Tibet, choosing between two Dalai Lamas could create immense pressure to publicly demonstrate loyalty to China.
The succession issue also has broader geopolitical implications, particularly for India and the United States. India, which hosts the Tibetan government-in-exile, views the Dalai Lama's succession as intertwined with its national security and its relationship with China. The U.S. government has also taken a firm stance, threatening sanctions against Chinese officials who interfere in the selection process.
The Dalai Lama's decision to continue the institution and his clear stance against Chinese interference have far-reaching consequences. It is a move to protect Tibetan Buddhism from political manipulation, asserting cultural autonomy and safeguarding the future of Tibetan Buddhism. While the future remains uncertain, the potential emergence of two rival Dalai Lamas underscores the complex intersection of religion, politics, and cultural identity in the ongoing struggle for Tibet's future.
