Bitcoin's price trajectory is currently hinting at a potential rally towards $120,000, fueled by a shift in sentiment among professional Bitcoin traders who are seemingly abandoning their bearish bets. This bullish outlook is supported by several factors, including reduced demand for downside protection in Bitcoin derivatives, Bitcoin lagging behind the global monetary supply chart, and extensions in US import tariff deadlines.
Derivatives Market Signals Renewed Confidence
A key indicator of this shifting sentiment lies in the Bitcoin derivatives market. There's been a noticeable decrease in demand for put options, which are used to hedge against potential price declines. This suggests that investors are becoming more confident in Bitcoin's prospects and are less concerned about significant downward movements. On Saturday, there was a surge in demand for put options on Deribit, pushing the put-to-call ratio to its highest level in over a year. However, this spike proved to be short-lived, and by Monday, the indicator had reverted to 0.8, favoring call (buy) options. This rapid reversal indicates that the initial surge in bearish sentiment was likely an anomaly, and the overall trend now points towards increased bullishness.
Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
Technical analysis for the past week indicates a cautious but generally bullish sentiment. BTC has been trading above key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), such as the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, which are serving as strong short-term support levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been hovering around the neutral level, reflecting a period of indecision, but with upward momentum often being confirmed by “dip-buying” interest. Bitcoin has been consolidating within a narrow range for the past seven weeks, building anticipation around its next major move. During this time, its dominance in the overall crypto market has risen steadily, surpassing 65%—its highest level since early 2021. This growing strength is also reflected in institutional interest, with spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessing $1 billion in net inflows over just two days.
Macroeconomic Factors and Institutional Interest
The shift in sentiment also coincides with easing geopolitical risks and positive statements from crypto asset managers. Increased institutional investor participation and a rise in Bitcoin network transaction volumes suggest sustained demand at current price levels. Moreover, analysts believe that fresh liquidity injections by major central banks could serve as a catalyst for a Bitcoin bull run.
Analyst Projections and Key Levels
Some analysts are forecasting even higher targets for July and the rest of 2025, predicting $115,000 to $136,000 for July and even $200,000 by year-end. Bitcoin, post-consolidation at $98,192, is now forming sub-wave 3 within a broader bullish move, with potential to hit $123,183. A key resistance zone around $109,500 to $110,500 has repeatedly halted upward momentum. A critical support level is at $102,430. If this support fails, it could trigger additional selling pressure and push the price toward lower levels near $100,000.
Remaining Cautious
Despite the bullish signals, investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions and the looming risk of a global trade war. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic news, including Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity, which will continue to shape BTC's price action.
Overall, the data suggests a potential for Bitcoin to rally towards $120,000, driven by a combination of factors including shifting investor sentiment, positive technical indicators, and supportive macroeconomic developments. However, traders are advised to proceed with caution and maintain strict risk management.
