In the wake of heightened tensions with India, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has publicly rejected the notion of nuclear escalation, tempering concerns that arose after officials alluded to a "full spectrum" response. This statement follows a recent military standoff between the two nations, triggered by a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, in Indian-administered Kashmir, on April 22, 2025, which killed 26 civilians. India accused Pakistan-based insurgent groups of orchestrating the attack, a charge Islamabad vehemently denied, calling for an independent investigation.
The escalating tensions led to a series of military strikes and counter-strikes in May 2025. India launched Operation Sindoor, targeting alleged militant camps within Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Pakistan retaliated with Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, claiming to have struck several Indian military bases. The conflict, which included the first drone battle between the two nuclear-armed nations, ceased after a ceasefire agreement was reached on May 10, 2025, following diplomatic intervention.
Sharif's recent comments aimed to alleviate fears of nuclear conflict, emphasizing that Pakistan's nuclear program is solely for "peaceful purposes and self-defence, not for aggression". This statement is particularly significant considering earlier remarks from Pakistani officials hinting at a potential nuclear response if India were to disrupt Pakistan's water resources, specifically in relation to the Indus Waters Treaty. After India announced its decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan responded declaring that it would respond to any attempt to divert water with "full force across the complete spectrum of national power" - a statement widely interpreted as a veiled nuclear threat.
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine is based on the concept of "full spectrum deterrence" (FSD), which involves a range of nuclear weapons across land, sea, and air-based delivery systems. This doctrine, which evolved from "minimum credible deterrence," is designed to deter a wide range of threats from sub-conventional to strategic levels. Some analysts view Pakistan's FSD as a strategy to lower the nuclear threshold, creating a strategic ambiguity that aims to deter India from taking military action.
Despite the ceasefire, the underlying issues fuelling the conflict remain unresolved. The long-standing dispute over Kashmir, India's accusations of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, and differing views on regional security continue to pose significant challenges.
The international community has expressed concern over the rapid escalation of the conflict and the potential for nuclear confrontation. The United States has urged both countries to de-escalate tensions and seek peaceful resolutions. Analysts have noted that this recent conflict escalated more quickly than previous ones, raising concerns about the stability of the deterrence architecture between the two countries. The situation underscores the need for sustained dialogue and confidence-building measures to prevent future crises and maintain peace in the region.
