Indian stock market indices, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, are expected to open on a slightly negative note on July 16, 2025, influenced by global market trends.

Global Cues and Initial Expectations:

• Gift Nifty: Early morning trade indicated a negative start, with Gift Nifty futures trading lower, suggesting a cautious opening for the Indian bourses.
• Global Markets: Steady gains in European markets and strong performance in NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures had previously suggested favorable global cues. However, current indications point towards weakness in global markets.
• Asian Markets: Overall weakness in Asian markets is also expected to weigh on the Indian indices.

Yesterday's Market Performance (July 15, 2025):

On Tuesday, July 15, the Indian stock market snapped a four-day losing streak and closed with gains. The NSE Nifty 50 ended 0.45% higher at 25,195.80, while the BSE Sensex closed 0.39% up at 82,570.91.

• Sensex: The BSE benchmark climbed 317.45 points, closing at 82,570.91.
• Nifty 50: The NSE Nifty 50 settled 113.50 points higher at 25,195.80.
• Broader Market: The broader market also saw positive movement, with the BSE Midcap index rising 0.83% and the Smallcap index gaining 0.95%.
• FII/DII Activity: Foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers of Indian shares, while domestic institutional investors remained buyers. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth ₹104.49 crore. Similarly, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth ₹1,477.58 crore on July 15.

Factors Influencing Market Sentiment:

• FII and DII Activity: FIIs have been net sellers in July, while DIIs have been supportive. This dynamic could lead to range-bound market activity, with domestic flows cushioning external pressures.
• Earnings Season: The commencement of the earnings season is expected to drive stock-specific actions. Investors will be closely watching Q1FY25 earnings, which could lead to sectoral rotation.
• Technical Indicators: Technical analysis suggests that the Nifty 50 may trade within a range. Support is expected in the 25,100-24,900 range, while resistance may be encountered around 25,331. A bullish "morning-star" candlestick formation near support could strengthen the case for a short-term uptrend.
• Derivatives Data: The highest Call open interest (OI) for Nifty 50 is observed at the 25,300 and 25,500 strikes, indicating potential resistance. On the Put side, the highest open interest is at the 25,000 strike, suggesting strong support around that level.

Nifty 50 Outlook and Trading Strategy:

• Near-Term Range: The Nifty 50 is likely to trade within a range in the near term.
• Support Levels: Key support is placed at 25,100-24,900. Immediate support is at 25,000.
• Resistance Levels: The index is expected to face resistance at 25,331, and potentially extend towards 25,340.
• Trading Strategy: Long positions should be protected with a stop loss at 25,000. If the Nifty surpasses the 20-day SMA, it could move up to 83,300 – 83,500.

Stocks to Watch:

• HDFC Asset Management Company: The short-term outlook is bullish for HDFC AMC, with the stock in a strong uptrend.
• Tilak Nagar Industries, Orchid Pharma, and ITC: These stocks are recommended for buying based on range breakouts, potential breakouts after downtrends, and inverse head & shoulders breakouts, respectively.
• Tanla Platforms Ltd: Recommended stock from IT sector with target price ₹825 in 16-24 Months.
• identified by analysts: Vaishali Parekh expects Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty to make further gains.

Overall Market Sentiment:

Cautious optimism prevails, with positive global cues potentially offset by consistent selling from FIIs. Focus will be on stock-specific actions driven by the ongoing earnings season. Technical analysis suggests a range-bound trading environment for the Nifty 50, with key support and resistance levels to watch.