Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom requires analyzing historical price patterns, market cycles, and various technical indicators. Bitcoin's market cycle typically involves alternating periods of appreciation and depreciation, influenced by market sentiment, regulatory changes, technological developments, and broader economic factors. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a four-year cycle tied to halving events, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the reward miners receive for mining new blocks.
Understanding Bitcoin's Market Cycles
Bitcoin's market cycle can be divided into four phases: accumulation, growth, bubble, and crash. The accumulation phase occurs when prices are relatively low, with small signs of growth. The growth phase sees prices moving towards the all-time high. During the bubble phase, the price surpasses the previous all-time high and increases exponentially. Finally, the crash phase involves a major correction to the downside after the euphoria of the bubble phase.
Historical Support Levels and Drawdowns
Analyzing past bear market periods can provide insights into potential support levels for the next cycle bottom. Previous bear markets have resulted in approximately 80% drawdowns from the top and negative price action for about a year. For example, the price tumbled almost 78% from an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021 to $15,476 in November 2022.
The 200-week moving average has historically provided excellent support for price declines, except in 2022 when prices fell more than expected due to the FTX collapse. Monitoring key price levels is crucial, as movements below certain support levels could signal a bearish trend.
Technical Indicators and Current Market Sentiment
As of August 26, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $110,000, testing its $110,000–$112,000 support range. A sustained breakdown below this zone could trigger a cascade toward the $100,000 psychological level. Conversely, a rebound above $113,500 could validate a bullish flag pattern and reignite upward momentum.
Technical indicators provide mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and ADX suggest a lack of directional clarity, while the MACD shows negative momentum. However, the 20-week EMA at $108,000 remains a critical dynamic support level. Historically, Bitcoin has rebounded from this level during prior bear market bottoms.
The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, currently at 1.51, is below the speculative "bubble" threshold of 2.2, indicating that Bitcoin's valuation is increasingly driven by real transactional value rather than hype.
Expert Analysis and Predictions
Several analysts have shared their perspectives on Bitcoin's potential future price movements. CryptoBirb suggested that Bitcoin might have only about 60 days of growth left, with a potential peak in October or November 2025. He noted that historical cycles indicate the next significant bear market may not occur until 2026, with a potential retracement toward $37,000.
Another analyst, Lennaert Snyder, considers the current correction as a refuel for the next upward move and that a retest reversal from $106,000 or $109,000 would still keep the bullish scenario intact.
Factors Influencing Support Levels
Several factors could influence Bitcoin's support levels in the next cycle:
Conclusion
Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom involves analyzing various factors, including historical price patterns, market cycles, technical indicators, and expert analysis. While predicting the exact bottom is impossible, identifying key support levels and understanding the factors that influence Bitcoin's price can help investors make informed decisions. Monitoring the $100,000 level, the 200-week moving average, and the 20-week EMA will be crucial in assessing potential support during the next crypto winter.
