India's foreign policy is facing a complex test as it navigates a challenging geopolitical landscape marked by strained relations with the United States under President Trump, warming ties with China, and continued reliance on Russian oil. Trump's administration has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports in response to India's purchase of Russian oil, a move perceived by many in New Delhi as a double standard. This has led to a recalibration of India's foreign policy, pushing it closer to China and Russia, a shift that could have significant consequences for global alliances.
The tariff hike has been criticized by Indian officials as "unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable". External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has argued that the US had, in fact, encouraged India to buy Russian oil to prevent global prices from rising after the Ukraine invasion. Moreover, he pointed out the inconsistency in the US policy, noting that China imports more oil from Russia but faces lower tariffs than India. Peter Navarro, a senior advisor to President Trump, has been a vocal critic of India's foreign policy, accusing it of "strategic freeloading" and funding Putin's war machine. He has linked India's oil purchases to the trade deficit between the two countries, arguing that the tariffs are a direct response.
In light of these tensions with the US, India is seeking to strengthen its relationships with China and Russia. Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, signaling a potential détente despite past border standoffs. This will be Modi's first visit to China since 2018. The meeting is viewed as a powerful symbol of India's hedging against the West and a possible counterweight to US pressure. Furthermore, President Putin is planning to visit India in December, indicating a growing alignment between the two countries. These developments suggest that India, China, and Russia may increasingly coordinate on reforming the global order, particularly in trade and finance.
Despite the growing bonhomie with China and Russia, India is unlikely to completely abandon its partnership with the United States. India sees the US as a vital pillar of its trade and security strategy, and relations between the two countries have improved significantly since 2008. However, India has always maintained its strategic autonomy and has been reluctant to become overly reliant on any single great power. This is reflected in its continued defense cooperation with Russia, which remains India's primary arms supplier. India's foreign policy is guided by the principle of "multi-alignment," which means diversifying its options and engaging with multiple partners to protect its strategic interests.
The current situation presents both challenges and opportunities for India. On the one hand, the strained relationship with the US could undermine India's economic growth and its ability to attract foreign investment. On the other hand, closer ties with China and Russia could provide India with new markets and investment opportunities, as well as greater leverage in international negotiations. India's ability to successfully navigate these complex dynamics will depend on its diplomatic skills and its commitment to its core principles of strategic autonomy and multi-alignment. The upcoming meetings between Modi and Xi, and Putin's visit to India, will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of India's foreign policy.
