The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall in September 2025. This follows a monsoon season marked by significant rainfall and weather-related disasters in various parts of the country.

Rainfall Forecast The IMD predicts that the monthly average rainfall for September 2025 will exceed 109% of the long-term average of 167.9 mm. This suggests that most regions are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some areas in the northeast and east, parts of extreme southern peninsular India, and certain pockets of northwest India might experience below-normal rainfall.

Regional Warnings and Concerns IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cautioned that heavy rainfall in September could trigger landslides and flash floods, particularly in Uttarakhand. He also warned of potential disruptions in south Haryana, Delhi, and north Rajasthan. Mohapatra highlighted the risk to areas downstream of rivers originating in Uttarakhand, emphasizing the need for preparedness. Heavy rainfall is also expected in the upper catchment areas of the Mahanadi river in Chhattisgarh.

Past Rainfall and Trends Northwest India experienced significantly above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, leading to severe flooding and landslides in several states. South Peninsular India and the entire country also recorded above-normal rainfall during this period. The country received 268.1 mm of rainfall in August, about 5% above normal, and 743.1 mm of rainfall in the three months of June to August, around 6% above normal. Mohapatra noted a slight rising trend in September rainfall since 1980.

Factors Contributing to Increased Rainfall The increased frequency of western disturbances, linked to climate change, has intensified rainfall, leading to infrastructure damage and loss of life. These disturbances, originating in the Mediterranean region, bring rainfall during winter and spring. However, due to climate change, their frequency has increased during the southwest monsoon season.

Temperature Forecast The IMD also provided insights into expected temperatures for September 2025. Maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal to below normal in many parts of west-central, northwest, and south India. Conversely, east-central, east, and northeast India may experience above-normal temperatures. Night temperatures in September 2025 are expected to be normal to above normal over most of India. However, some areas in northwest India and southern peninsular India might experience below-normal minimum temperatures.

Impact on Agriculture

The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), critical for rainfed agriculture, is projected to receive above-normal rainfall, boosting prospects for a productive Kharif cropping season.

Monsoon Season Details

The southwest monsoon, which brings rainfall from June to September, arrived ahead of schedule in 2025. By June 29, the monsoon had reached every part of the country, nine days earlier than normal. This rapid spread helped fill reservoirs and allowed farmers to plant early.