India's demographic structure is undergoing a significant transformation, characterized by a declining fertility rate, a shrinking proportion of young population (0-14 age group), and an expanding working-age population. This shift indicates that India's population is aging.
Declining Fertility Rate India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, reaching 1.9 in 2023. The replacement level is the demographic threshold at which births equal deaths, maintaining a stable population without migration. This decline marks a milestone, bringing rural India in line with global demographic trends. In 2023, rural areas recorded a TFR of 2.1, while urban areas, which had already fallen below this level more than 20 years ago, recorded a TFR of 1.5.
This decline in TFR is attributed to increased access to education and reproductive healthcare. However, disparities exist across states, castes, and income groups. States like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh continue to exhibit high fertility rates due to limited access to contraception, healthcare services, and deeply rooted gender norms. Conversely, states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala have TFRs mirroring those of developed nations.
Shrinking 0-14 Age Group The share of the 0-14 age group in India's population has been steadily decreasing. It declined from 41.2% to 38.1% between 1971 and 1981, and further to 24.2% between 1991 and 2023. This decline is a direct consequence of the falling fertility rate. While the percentage of males in the 0-14 age group is generally higher than that of females across all states and Union Territories, an exception exists in rural Delhi, where the proportion of females exceeds that of males.
Expanding Working-Age Population As the younger population shrinks, the proportion of the working-age population (15-59 years) is growing. In 2011, 60.7% of India's population was within the working-age range, and this is expected to increase to 64.9% by 2036. Urban areas are attracting a larger share of the working-age group, with 68.8% of the total urban population belonging to this demographic.
Implications of an Ageing India An ageing population poses several challenges. As the proportion of elderly dependents increases, there could be a strain on pensions, healthcare, and public finances. The healthcare system may face increased pressure due to age-related diseases and chronic conditions. Furthermore, with weakening social security systems and traditional family support structures, elderly individuals may face economic insecurity and social isolation.
However, an ageing population also presents opportunities. A decline in child dependency could lead to reduced education spending, easing budget constraints in the short term. The elderly are also becoming a larger share of the consumer class, giving rise to a "silver economy" that caters to their needs. This includes opportunities in senior wellness, housing, and financial technology. Moreover, India's working-age population is projected to rise until 2036, which could boost economic growth if the country invests in education, health, nutrition and skilling.
To address the challenges and harness the opportunities of an ageing population, India needs to implement policy reforms, expand pension systems, protect against elder abuse, and improve healthcare to support geriatric and long-term care. Investment in preventive health, insurance, and community care models is essential to ensure a resilient and inclusive system. Local governments and non-governmental organizations should be empowered to offer decentralized, community-based senior care.
