Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, is gearing up for a comeback in the United States, potentially reaching a valuation of $10 billion. This move signifies the growing interest in prediction markets and crypto ventures.

Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcomes of various future events, ranging from economic indicators and weather patterns to awards, political outcomes, and legislative decisions. Participants deposit USDC cryptocurrency via the Polygon blockchain and trade shares representing the likelihood of specific outcomes.

Polymarket gained prominence during the 2024 US presidential election, where its markets accurately predicted Donald Trump's victory. The platform's activity saw a significant surge during this period, driven by a rise in monthly active traders.

However, in 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) barred Polymarket from serving US users after a settlement for operating an unregistered derivatives platform. The company was fined $1.4 million for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility. Despite the ban, Polymarket continued to operate overseas, allowing users to bet on various events, including presidential elections and sports outcomes.

To facilitate its return to the US market, Polymarket acquired QCX, a Florida-based derivatives exchange, in July. In September 2025, the CFTC issued a no-action letter to QCX, providing relief from certain federal reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan hailed this decision as effectively giving the platform "the green light to go live in the USA".

As part of its US comeback strategy, Polymarket is reportedly seeking new funding, potentially tripling its June valuation of $1 billion to a staggering $10 billion. One investor has already valued the company at this amount. In June, Polymarket was reportedly raising $200 million in a round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, an early backer of companies like OpenAI, Paxos, and Palantir.

Polymarket's platform allows users to trade on event outcomes without a centralized bookmaker. The platform's on-chain "collective intelligence" pricing capability gained attention, with trading volume surging over 300% during the 2024 election. According to Polymarket Analytics data, the cumulative trading volume of leading on-chain prediction markets has surpassed $1 billion, with nearly 30,000 markets created across diverse topics.

The increasing popularity of prediction markets is attributed to their transparency, security, and censorship resistance compared to traditional platforms. With loosening US regulations, companies like Coinbase and Kalshi are also entering the space, attracting more users and capital. These markets are evolving beyond mere entertainment betting, becoming a tool for information verification, where users' financial stakes reflect the probabilistic judgments of collective intelligence.

Polymarket emphasizes decentralization and transparency, while Kalshi pursues regulatory compliance under the CFTC. Polymarket has also added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor ahead of its US return, with his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, making a strategic investment in the company.

Polymarket's resurgence in the US market marks a significant development in the growing prediction market industry, potentially transforming how individuals assess and trade on future events.