Recent moves by the United States in Bangladesh have triggered unease in neighboring India and Myanmar, raising questions about Washington's strategic intentions in the region. These concerns stem from a combination of military activities, diplomatic engagements, and historical context, with implications for regional stability and the balance of power.
One of the primary causes for concern is the increase in US military activity in Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong region. The landing of a C-130J Super Hercules military transport aircraft, coupled with joint military exercises, has drawn scrutiny due to Chittagong's strategic location, which is close to both India and Myanmar. These actions have led to speculation about potential extra-regional influence and the true purpose behind the increased US military presence.
Adding to these concerns are past allegations of US involvement in the ouster of the previous Bangladeshi Prime Minister. Such historical precedents contribute to a sense of suspicion and make regional players wary of potential interference in domestic politics.
For India, the situation is particularly delicate. Bangladesh has historically been a strong ally of India, and stability in the region is crucial for India's security interests. Any instability in Bangladesh could have repercussions for West Bengal, Northeast India, and the entire Bay of Bengal region. India also has significant investments in Bangladesh, and a destabilized Bangladesh could negatively impact these economic interests. India's Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP), which connects Myanmar's Sittwe Port to India's northeastern state of Mizoram, is also located in Rakhine State and could be impacted.
Moreover, India is seen by some as an ally of Myanmar's military junta, which puts India at odds with anti-coup forces. The US may be considering using a "humanitarian aid corridor" through Bangladesh to provide logistical support to the Arakan Army (AA) in its fight against Myanmar's military junta. If the US were to provide support to the AA, it could have larger implications for India, especially if Sittwe falls to the AA.
Myanmar's concerns are centered around potential external support for rebel groups. Myanmar's ruling regime has accused foreign powers of backing armed groups fighting the military. The chief of Myanmar's military junta, General Min Aung Hlaing, has stated that "some powerful nations" were helping armed groups fighting the military.
The United States has stated that it is in communication with India and other countries in the region regarding recent developments in Bangladesh and is seeking an end to the violence there. The US has also expressed its support for ensuring human rights, the rule of law, and the protection of minorities in Bangladesh. The US Deputy Spokesperson of the Department of State, Vedant Patel, stated that the US is pushing for an end to violence in Bangladesh, as well as for accountability and respect for the rule of law.
Adding another layer of complexity, China's growing influence in the region is also a factor. With Beijing's increasing ties with Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, India's influence in the region could be weakened. This is further complicated by the ongoing Rohingya crisis, cross-border terrorism, and water sharing issues.
Given these factors, India needs to focus on border security, infrastructure development, and diplomatic coordination to safeguard its strategic interests and promote regional stability. It should also adapt its policies in response to Myanmar's internal issues and political changes in Bangladesh to ensure effective engagement and regional cooperation.