India's food grain stocks are currently robust, with rice reserves hitting record highs and wheat stocks reaching a four-year peak. This has been attributed to increased procurement from farmers and favorable weather conditions.

Rice Stocks Surge

As of early June/July 2025, rice stocks in government warehouses have risen significantly, reaching a record of 55.66 million metric tons. This is a substantial increase of 15-18% compared to the previous year. These reserves far exceed the government's target of 13.5 million tons for July 1, highlighting the extent of the surplus. These high levels of rice stocks are expected to boost India's position as a leading exporter of rice, potentially increasing international shipments. In March 2025, India removed the last of its export curbs on rice, paving the way for increased sales abroad.

However, some experts are advising the government to reduce these stocks before the next buying season begins in October, with one New Delhi-based dealer noting that the rice stocks have accumulated excessively.

Wheat Reserves Strengthen

Wheat stocks have also seen considerable improvement, reaching their highest level in four years. As of early June/July 2025, wheat stocks stood at 35.9 - 36.9 million tons, surpassing the government's target of 27.6 million tons. The government's procurement of wheat from farmers reached nearly 30 million tons, the highest in four years.

The increase in wheat reserves is expected to help the government manage domestic prices and prevent potential spikes by increasing open market sales. The strong wheat reserves also mean that India should be able to meet domestic demand without needing to import wheat.

Overall Foodgrain Production and Targets

The Ministry of Agriculture reported record grain production of 354 million metric tons in the 2024/2025 Indian Crop Year, a 21.7 million metric ton increase from the previous year, which they attributed to favorable monsoon conditions. For the 2025-26 crop year, India has set a foodgrain production target of 362.50 million tonnes. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall, which is expected to further boost production, consumption, exports, and stock estimates for rice, wheat, and corn. Sowing of kharif crops has been completed in over 111 million hectares, which is higher than the normal sown area.

Challenges and Future Strategies

Despite the overall positive outlook, there are challenges. Crop damage in some states due to rains may prevent a bumper harvest. There is also a need to focus on increasing the production of pulses and oilseeds, where India is not as globally competitive as in rice and wheat. The government is planning to develop roadmaps to enhance yields, with a special emphasis on per-hectare productivity.