In a notable shift, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from India's power sector have experienced a decline for the first time in nearly half a century, excluding the period impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. This reduction, revealed in a recent analysis, marks a significant departure from the country's long-term emissions trajectory, which has generally risen in tandem with its expanding economy. The analysis, conducted by the Bengaluru-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, a UK-based climate-focused publication, indicates that CO2 emissions from India's electricity sector dropped by 1% between January and June of this year compared to the same period in 2024.
The power sector is the largest contributor to India's greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for almost 40% of the country’s annual emissions. This makes the recent decline a noteworthy development with potential global implications, suggesting that India's emissions trajectory may be flattening. The analysis further suggests that emissions from India's electricity sector may peak by 2030, much earlier than previously anticipated.
Several factors have contributed to this emissions drop. Milder summer temperatures and plentiful monsoon rainfall led to lower electricity demand. The pre-monsoon period saw rainfall about 30% higher than normal, reducing the need for power. Furthermore, increased generation of clean electricity sources played a crucial role. Fossil fuel-based generation, mainly from coal, fell by 29 TWh, while solar generation increased by 17 TWh, and wind rose by 9 TWh. Hydropower generation also saw an increase of 9 TWh, and nuclear rose by 3 TWh.
The increasing capacity of solar and wind power to meet peak electricity demands, aided by energy storage solutions, could lead to a stabilization of coal-powered electricity generation and associated emissions. The Indian government is also actively promoting renewable energy. Pralhad Joshi, Minister for New and Renewable Energy, stated that India installed 23 GW of non-fossil fuel electricity capacity in the first five months of the fiscal year (April to August) and expects this to double in the remaining months.
While this decline in power sector emissions is a positive sign, it is important to note that India's energy-related CO2 emissions still rose by 5.3% in 2024, the highest rate among major economies. This increase was driven by rapid economic growth, infrastructure development, and surging energy demand, with severe heatwaves further boosting electricity consumption. Renewable energy growth has not yet kept pace with rising demand, leaving fossil fuels dominant in the electricity mix.
Despite the challenges, India has made considerable strides in renewable energy integration. As of 2023-24, the country's total installed power generation capacity reached around 442 GW, with renewable energy accounting for a significant portion. Renewable energy generation saw a substantial increase, reaching 225.83 billion units in 2023-24, compared to 203.55 billion units in the previous year. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) calculated the weighted average emission factor at 0.727 tCO₂/MWh, reflecting reduced emissions due to the increasing share of renewables.
Looking ahead, India has set ambitious goals for renewable energy capacity, aiming for 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. The country is also focused on improving energy efficiency and has implemented various policy instruments to support renewable energy deployment. While challenges remain, the recent decline in power sector emissions, coupled with increasing renewable energy capacity, suggests that India is making progress towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.
