The Asia Cup 2025 final between India and Pakistan in Dubai is set to be a thrilling encounter, with several factors potentially influencing the outcome. Here's a breakdown of key aspects that could decide the match:
Dew Factor:
While dew has had minimal impact throughout the tournament, its presence or absence can still subtly influence the toss decision and the strategies employed by both teams. If dew is anticipated later in the evening, the team winning the toss might prefer to chase, as the wet ball could make it difficult for bowlers to grip and generate spin.
Injuries and Team Composition:
India is hoping that Hardik Pandya is fit for the final, but he is dealing with a hamstring issue. His presence adds balance to the team. Jasprit Bumrah is set to return to the playing XI for India. India's predicted XI includes Abhishek Sharma, Shubman Gill, Suryakumar Yadav (c), Tilak Varma, Sanju Samson (wk), Hardik Pandya/Arshdeep Singh, Axar Patel, Shivam Dube, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, and Varun Chakaravarthy. Pakistan is unlikely to change their winning formation. Their predicted XI is Sahibzada Farhan, Fakhar Zaman, Saim Ayub, Salman Agha (c), Hussain Talat, Mohammad Haris (wk), Mohammad Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf, and Abrar Ahmed.
Swing and Seam Movement:
The Dubai pitch is expected to offer some assistance to bowlers, particularly with the new ball. Fast bowlers could find early movement and bounce, making the first few overs crucial for both teams. Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf have regained form, providing Pakistan with crucial firepower.
Abhishek Sharma's Form:
Abhishek Sharma has been a standout performer for India, consistently contributing with the bat. He is the leading run-scorer in the tournament. Former Pakistan opener Ahmed Shehzad noted that if Pakistan gets Abhishek Sharma out early, the rest of India's batting lineup isn't in great form, giving Pakistan a better chance to win. Sri Lanka head coach Sanath Jayasuriya has lauded Abhishek Sharma's fearless batting and credits the team management for allowing him to play his natural game. Sunil Gavaskar has warned Pakistani bowlers that Abhishek Sharma won't let opportunities slip by and is likely to aim for a big innings.
Spin Bowling:
The Dubai pitch generally tends to be slower, which can assist spin bowlers. Spinners could purchase turns while bowling in the right areas. Kuldeep Yadav has been in excellent form, leading the wicket-takers' list in the tournament. Pakistan will need to play Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy well.
Weather Conditions:
The weather in Dubai is expected to be hot, with temperatures peaking at 40°C and falling to 31°C in the evening. Dew has had minimal effect throughout the tournament.
Pitch Report:
The Dubai pitch is generally slower compared to Abu Dhabi. However, the India vs Sri Lanka match saw a surface ideal for stroke-play. A similar wicket is expected for the final, likely offering some assistance to bowlers. The boundary dimensions and relatively sluggish outfield further tilt the conditions in favor of bowlers.
Historical Performance:
This is the first time that India and Pakistan are facing each other in the Asia Cup final. India has won both previous encounters between the two sides in this tournament. India has been the most dominant side in the tournament, remaining unbeaten. India is aiming for a record ninth Asia Cup title. Pakistan is chasing their third Asia Cup triumph and their first since 2012.
Other Factors:
- Toss: The toss could play a significant role in shaping each team's strategy.
- Fielding: India's fielding has been suspect, with 12 dropped catches in the tournament.
- Team news: Hardik Pandya's availability is uncertain due to a hamstring issue.
Overall, India appears to hold the upper hand, having won both previous encounters against Pakistan in the tournament. However, Pakistan's bowling attack is formidable, and if their batting can find consistency, they could pose a serious threat. The team that handles the pressure and adapts best to the conditions will likely emerge victorious.
