The Mahagathbandhan, a coalition of political parties in Bihar, is poised to announce its seat-sharing formula for the upcoming elections within the next two days, though some issues remain unresolved, according to sources within the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). This development comes amidst intense negotiations and strategic maneuvering among the alliance members as they gear up to challenge the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The Mahagathbandhan currently comprises six parties: the RJD, Congress, Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation, and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). There are indications that three more parties—the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) led by Pashupati Kumar Paras, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), and the Indian Inquilab Party (IIP)—may soon join the coalition.
The RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, appears to be a dominant force within the alliance, holding relative strength in a significant number of constituencies. According to reports, the RJD is likely to contest around 140 seats. Meanwhile, the Congress is expected to contest between 62-64 seats. To accommodate the VIP and other smaller parties, the main parties have decided to reduce their seat share by approximately 10% compared to the 2020 elections.
The CPI, CPI(M), and CPI(ML) have traditionally maintained pockets of influence in Bihar. In the last election, they collectively won 16 out of the 29 seats they contested. It is anticipated that the CPI(ML) will be strong in 9-15 seats, while the CPI and CPI(M) may have a stronghold in 2-5 and 2-3 seats, respectively.
Negotiations are underway to bring Pashupati Nath Paras of the RLJP into the Mahagathbandhan fold. The RJD has reportedly offered Paras 2-3 seats, while Paras is seeking 10-15 seats, particularly in Vaishali, to capitalize on the Paswan community's vote share.
Despite the progress in seat-sharing discussions, some issues are yet to be sorted out. The Congress party is reportedly demanding a substantial number of seats, potentially fueling disagreements within the alliance. Mukesh Sahani of VIP has advocated for the Mahagathbandhan to announce a CM face along with a Deputy CM.
A meeting of the Mahagathbandhan is scheduled to take place to finalize the seat-sharing arrangements. Sources suggest that a tentative formula allocates 140 seats to RJD, 52 to Congress, 35 to Left parties, and 15 to VIP, with minor adjustments possible.
The Mahagathbandhan aims to present a united front against the NDA in the upcoming elections. In 2015, the alliance secured a significant victory with 178 out of 243 seats. The RJD, Janata Dal (United), Indian National Congress, and several Communist parties reunited in August 2022 to form a government with a two-thirds majority in the Bihar Legislative Assembly.
