Bihar is gearing up for a crucial assembly election that will not only determine the state's future but also test the resilience of the opposition at the national level. The Election Commission has announced that the polls for the 243 Assembly seats will be held in two phases on November 6 and November 11, with the counting of votes scheduled for November 14.
Contesting Alliances and Key Players
The primary contest is between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition INDIA bloc. The NDA comprises the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP], Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) [HAM(S)], and other allies. The INDIA bloc is spearheaded by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), with Tejashwi Yadav as its prominent face, and includes the Indian National Congress (INC) and Left parties.
A new element in this election is the presence of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), which is expected to contest all 243 seats and potentially cut into the vote share of the major parties. Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party is also set to make its debut in the Bihar assembly elections.
NDA's Strengths and Challenges
The NDA is relying on Nitish Kumar's long experience as Chief Minister and his focus on "sushasan" (good governance). They are also highlighting the "double-engine government" advantage, with the same ruling coalition at the Centre and in the state, to showcase development initiatives. According to a Matriz survey, the NDA is projected to secure 49% of the total votes, potentially leading to a comfortable majority with approximately 150 seats. Within the NDA, the BJP is expected to win 80-85 seats, and the JD(U) 60-65.
However, after being in power for two decades, anti-incumbency sentiment may pose a challenge for the NDA. The BJP's social base is perceived to be upper-caste dominated, which could limit its appeal among backward and marginalized communities.
INDIA Bloc's Strategy
The INDIA bloc is banking on youthful leadership, caste alliances, and voter mobilization to end the NDA's rule. The RJD retains a loyal Muslim-Yadav (MY) voter base, which accounts for nearly 30% of the electorate. Tejashwi Yadav, the leader of the opposition, is trying to consolidate this base and expand the alliance's reach. However, some surveys predict that the RJD may win only 60-65 seats, a decrease from its previous tally of 75, and the Congress may be restricted to 7-10 seats, down from 19.
Key Issues and Factors
Several factors will likely influence the outcome of the Bihar elections 2025. These include voter turnout, youth engagement, and perceptions of governance and corruption. Caste dynamics and development promises are also central to the electoral battle. NewsX's opinion poll indicates that development is the biggest poll issue for 53% of people in Bihar.
The election will also test the INDIA bloc's ability to remain united and present a cohesive challenge to the NDA, especially after recent setbacks. Alliances and seat-sharing arrangements will be critical in maximizing the opposition's chances.
Electoral Roll and Preparations
The final voter list for Bihar, published on September 30, includes 7.42 crore electors. The Election Commission has conducted a Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, deleting 68.5 lakh voters and adding 21.5 lakh new names. The commission is also aiming to ensure free and fair elections, with 100 percent webcasting in all booths.
