The political landscape of Bihar witnessed a significant shift in 2015 when two prominent figures, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar, joined forces to form the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). This alliance, which also included the Indian National Congress, decisively defeated the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar Assembly elections. The reunion of Lalu and Nitish, once fierce rivals, marked a strategic realignment driven by the common goal of countering the growing influence of the BJP in the region.

A Shift in Alliances

Prior to the 2015 elections, Bihar's political scene had been characterized by shifting alliances and volatile dynamics. Nitish Kumar, who had served as Chief Minister for a significant period, had previously been in alliance with the BJP. However, differences arose, leading to the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] leaving the NDA coalition. Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad Yadav, a veteran politician with a strong base, had seen his political career face setbacks. The coming together of these two leaders, who both emerged from the social justice politics of the 1970s and 1980s, signaled a major change in Bihar's political dynamics.

Factors Behind the Victory

Several factors contributed to the Grand Alliance's victory in the 2015 Bihar elections. A key element was the consolidation of social bases. For the first time since 1990, Kurmis and Yadavs in Bihar voted on the same side. Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar successfully ensured the transfer of support between their respective parties, despite mutual distrust among some members. Surveys indicated that a significant percentage of Yadavs voted for the JD(U) in the constituencies it contested, and the transfer of Kurmi votes was even more substantial.

Beyond caste arithmetic, Nitish Kumar's positive image and performance as Chief Minister also played a crucial role. A large majority of Bihari voters were satisfied with the work done by his state government. His reputation for good governance and development initiatives resonated with a significant portion of the electorate. While Lalu Prasad Yadav's image remained somewhat tarnished, Nitish's positive perception helped the Grand Alliance win over swing voters. Effective campaign strategy and coordination across all parties in ticket distribution and voter mobilization, were also identified as contributing factors.

The BJP's Debacle

The 2015 Bihar election was a major setback for the BJP and its allies. Despite having won a significant number of assembly constituency segments in the 2014 national election, the NDA's performance plummeted in the 2015 state election. The BJP lost a significant percentage of its vote share compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The NDA's loss was attributed to several factors, including poor party coordination, a wayward campaign strategy, and the failure to effectively counter Nitish Kumar's development agenda. The BJP's campaign, which often veered off-script and focused on issues such as beef consumption and caste reservations, failed to resonate with floating voters.

Implications and Aftermath

The victory of the Lalu-Nitish coalition in 2015 had significant implications for Bihar's political landscape and national politics. It marked a resurgence for Lalu Prasad Yadav, whose political career had faced challenges. The Grand Alliance's win also demonstrated the importance of strong regional leaders and the limitations of the "Modi magic" in countering popular state-level figures. However, the alliance between Lalu and Nitish proved to be short-lived. In 2017, Nitish Kumar once again switched sides, returning to the NDA. This shift highlighted the fluid and often unpredictable nature of political alliances in Bihar.

The 2015 Bihar election serves as a compelling case study in Indian politics, illustrating the significance of alliance dynamics, caste considerations, leadership ইমেজ, and campaign strategy in shaping electoral outcomes.. The reunion of Lalu and Nitish, though ultimately temporary, demonstrated the potential for even long-standing rivals to come together in pursuit of shared political objectives.