Bitcoin's impressive two-year bullish trend is facing a critical test, leaving investors wondering if the bulls can defend the $90,000 level. Several factors contribute to this potential shift, including technical indicators, macroeconomic conditions, and changing market sentiment.
Technical Analysis Suggests a Downtrend
Bitcoin's technical charts paint a concerning picture for bullish investors. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is exhibiting bearish signals. The 50-day moving average is declining, indicating a weakening short-term trend. Furthermore, the 200-day moving average has been falling since October 11, 2025, suggesting a weak longer-term trend. The daily chart also reflects a bearish outlook. A "death cross" pattern, where the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross, has formed, typically signaling a downtrend. Bitcoin's price crashed from its all-time high of $126,300 last month to a low of $98,935 last week. It formed a double-top pattern at $124,425 and a neckline at $107,127, and it has come close to retesting this neckline, a move that will confirm the highly bearish break-and-retest pattern.
Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment
The recent downturn has been attributed to a sell-off in U.S. equities, fueled by fears of an artificial intelligence bubble. This risk-off sentiment has impacted Bitcoin, causing it to underperform compared to gold this year. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 15, indicating "Extreme Fear" in the market. This demonstrates a significant shift in sentiment.
Can the Bulls Defend $90,000?
The ability of Bitcoin to hold above $90,000 is crucial. A move below that level could signal further downside, potentially leading to a deeper correction. Some analysts believe that if key support near $102,000–$104,000 holds, Bitcoin may recover from the recent dip. Technical indicators such as the oversold RSI and flattening MACD suggest that a relief bounce is likely. However, a sustained recovery will depend on renewed buying momentum, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic stability.
Conflicting Predictions
Despite the current bearish signals, long-term forecasts for Bitcoin remain largely positive. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $175,000 by the end of 2025. Other projections range from $114,500 to $168,000 by the end of November. Changelly anticipates Bitcoin's value will increase by 28.22% and reach $131,987.06 by November 16, 2025. CoinCodex forecasts Bitcoin to trade between $97,838 and $131,833 this week, potentially reaching $131,833 by November 16, 2025.
What to Watch For
Investors should closely monitor several key factors that could influence Bitcoin's price in the coming weeks:
- ETF Inflows: Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could provide support and drive prices higher.
- Macroeconomic Data: Upcoming economic data releases, particularly regarding inflation and employment, could impact market sentiment and Bitcoin's price.
- Regulatory Clarity: Any positive developments regarding cryptocurrency regulation could boost investor confidence and lead to price appreciation.
- Technical Indicators: Watching key technical levels and patterns will be crucial for gauging the strength of the current trend.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with its two-year trend facing a significant challenge. While technical indicators suggest a potential downtrend, long-term forecasts remain optimistic. Whether the bulls can defend the $90,000 level remains to be seen, but the coming weeks will likely be pivotal for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
