The question of whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is broken is a hot topic as we approach 2026. Historically, Bitcoin's price has followed a predictable pattern: a surge after a halving event (which cuts mining rewards in half), followed by a peak, and then a significant correction. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, leading to a surge that briefly pushed Bitcoin above $125,000.
However, the familiar mix of excitement and unease has crept back in. Investors note that we're beyond the typical 12-18 month cycle, possibly breaking new ground. Bitcoin's dip below $100,000 caused panic among some, but it has mostly remained around that mark for the past six months.
Several factors suggest that this cycle may be different. Institutional demand is now a structural force, not a transient trend. The explosive growth of Bitcoin ETFs has provided a vehicle for institutional capital, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs holding $113.8 billion in assets. Regulatory clarity, through acts like the GENIUS Act in the U.S. and the EU's MiCA framework, has reduced friction for capital flows into Bitcoin. Macroeconomic positioning has reclassified Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
However, not everyone agrees that the four-year cycle is broken. Some analysts point to weak sentiment, early selling, and a lack of a "mania phase" as evidence that the cycle is still in play. Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could stay under pressure into mid-2026, with key price zones to watch on the way down.
Looking ahead to 2026, price predictions vary widely. Some forecast a bear market with Bitcoin falling to $60,000 - $75,000. Others predict new highs, with targets ranging from $150,000 to $250,000. Citibank believes Bitcoin could rise to $143,000, driven by ETF capital influx and new regulations. Factors that could drive Bitcoin's price higher include continued ETF inflows, limited supply, and improved liquidity conditions. Challenges include tightening liquidity, regulatory uncertainty, and potential monetary policy shifts.
Ultimately, whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is broken remains to be seen. It is possible that the cycle is not broken but "graduated", influenced as much by central banks as by miners. The next phase will be shaped more by mechanics than momentum.
