The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that central and adjoining northwest India may experience a colder than usual winter, with a higher frequency of cold wave days. This forecast follows a contrasting weather pattern where northern and central regions are already experiencing a cold wave, while southern states are preparing for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.
Factors Contributing to the Forecast
Several factors contribute to the anticipated chilly winter. The absence of significant cloud cover and the dominance of dry continental air flow following the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon are key contributors. These conditions facilitate rapid nighttime cooling, leading to a drop in minimum temperatures.
The potential development of La Niña conditions is another factor influencing the forecast. La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has historically been linked to colder winters in South Asia, including increased cold waves and snowfall in the northern parts of the country and the Himalayan highlands. The IMD and the US Climate Prediction Center have both suggested the possibility of a moderate La Niña phase between October and December 2025.
Regional Impact and Temperature Variations
The IMD has issued cold wave warnings for parts of east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh, with temperatures expected to dip significantly below seasonal averages. Minimum temperatures have already fallen below 10 degrees Celsius in some areas, with anomalies of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius below normal in parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana. Night temperatures are also running 2 to 4 degrees Celsius below normal in Delhi, parts of Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. A fall in minimum temperature of about 2 degrees Celsius is expected over the Vidarbha region and Chhattisgarh during the next few days, while eastern India could experience a sharper 2 to 4 degrees Celsius drop.
While northwest India may experience colder nights, the IMD anticipates that daytime temperatures are likely to stay normal to slightly below normal.
IMD's Definition of a Cold Wave
The IMD considers a cold wave to occur when the minimum temperature is less than the 10th percentile of the daily climatological value, and the climatological daily minimum temperature is less than 15 degrees Celsius. These conditions must persist for three consecutive days to qualify as a cold wave event.
Potential Implications
A colder than normal winter with increased cold wave days could have several implications:
- Agriculture: While a moderate chilling can benefit Rabi crops such as wheat, frost and fog may negatively influence the production of pulses and vegetables.
- Health: Increased respiratory ailments, hypothermia, and general susceptibility, particularly among older adults and low-income populations, may occur.
- Daily Life: Thick fog may cause disruptions in transportation, school schedules, and energy consumption.
Contradictory Reports
It's worth noting that some reports from early November 2025 suggested that northwest India was unlikely to experience an unusually harsh winter, with conditions expected to remain largely normal. However, more recent data, including the extended range forecast for the next two weeks (November 27 to December 10, 2025), indicates a likelihood of below-normal minimum temperatures and cold wave conditions in isolated pockets of north Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana.
