Vladimir Putin's state visit to India on December 4-5, 2025, marks a crucial moment in the Indo-Russian relationship, testing New Delhi's ability to balance its strategic partnerships with both Moscow and Washington. This is Putin's first visit to India since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The visit, which includes the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit, provides an opportunity for both countries to review their bilateral relations and discuss regional and global issues of mutual interest.
Several key issues are expected to be on the agenda. A primary objective for Russia is to safeguard its trade ties with India from potential US sanctions. Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri Peskov indicated that Russia aims to utilize the summit to protect bilateral commerce from pressure exerted by third countries. This is particularly relevant as the US has been trying to limit Russian oil supplies to India. To that end, Russia is ready to address India's concerns over the widening trade deficit and will seek to create an "architecture" that shields bilateral commerce from pressure by third countries.
Deepening defense cooperation is another crucial aspect of the visit. Despite pressure from the US to reduce its reliance on Russian military equipment, India is likely to emphasize its strategic autonomy by reinvigorating defense ties with Russia. Another watchpoint during Putin's visit will be the announcement of new defence deals.
Beyond defense and trade, the two countries are exploring collaboration in other sectors. These include expanding Indian imports to Russia and cooperation in civil nuclear energy, with discussions underway regarding the development of small modular reactors. A labor mobility agreement is also expected to be signed, establishing a framework for the legal migration of skilled Indian workers to support Russia in sectors facing labor shortages, such as IT services.
The visit occurs against a backdrop of significantly increased trade between India and Russia, which has risen from under $10 billion before the pandemic to almost $70 billion this year, largely driven by India's import of Russian oil. The two countries have set a target of $100 billion by 2030. Putin's visit can be seen as an effort to compensate for reduced oil purchases by diversifying the trade relationship.
India's balancing act between the US and Russia is increasingly complex. While Washington has expressed concerns about New Delhi's continued engagement with Moscow, India has maintained its strategic autonomy, emphasizing its long-standing relationship with Russia. This visit will likely see India reaffirming its commitment to this partnership while also navigating the pressures and expectations from the United States.
