Bitcoin's accumulation trends are showing signs of strengthening, even as realized losses have surged to levels not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022. This divergence suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, with long-term investors capitalizing on recent price dips while short-term holders experience significant losses.
Realized losses occur when investors sell their Bitcoin at a lower price than their original purchase price, effectively locking in a loss on their investment. The recent spike in realized losses, nearing $5.8 billion, indicates a period of intense selling pressure, particularly among short-term holders who bought near recent peaks. This wave of capitulation is viewed by some analysts as a potential sign of a market bottom. Historically, such capitulations have been linked to local price bottoms, often followed by a recovery.
Despite the high realized losses, several factors point to strengthening accumulation trends. Bitcoin exchange balances have declined sharply, reaching their lowest level since January 2021. Over 23,385 BTC, representing over $2.15 billion, have been withdrawn from trading platforms in the past week. This suggests that investors are moving their Bitcoin off exchanges into long-term storage, reducing the available supply and easing selling pressure.
On-chain metrics reveal that whale wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more have increased from around 1,350 in 2023 to over 1,450 by late 2025. This indicates continued structural accumulation by large players during the recent market downturn. The Bitcoin Trend Accumulation Score also signals noteworthy activity, with smaller wallets accumulating aggressively and larger cohorts accumulating at a moderate pace. This reflects growing retail confidence and reduced sell-side pressure across several wallet groups.
However, the absence of strong "smart money" participation remains a concern. Large institutional holders tend to influence price direction more significantly, and their hesitation could hinder Bitcoin's ability to convert retail-driven accumulation into a sustained rally. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows in November, but flows have shifted back to net inflows in the final days of November and early December, suggesting that institutions are selectively buying the dip instead of exiting outright.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $92,000-$93,000, recovering from recent lows in the mid-$80,000s. It faces resistance from a month-long downtrend and needs to break above $95,000 to regain sustained bullish momentum. AMBCrypto's technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin has reclaimed its key support level at $92,000, but the broader market structure remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows.
Overall, the Bitcoin market is showing signs of stabilization after a period of intense volatility. Realized losses have surged, indicating short-term pain, but accumulation trends are strengthening, suggesting long-term confidence. The interplay between retail and institutional accumulation, ETF flows, and technical levels will likely determine Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming weeks.
