Bitcoin has been in a bear market for approximately two months, according to a key metric that analyzes demand. While the price of Bitcoin remains a focal point for many, some analysts are suggesting that a more accurate way to define a cycle is by looking at demand.
The "Apparent Demand" indicator, used by Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, compares the daily miner issuance against the changes in the 1-year dormant supply. Miner issuance reflects the production of Bitcoin, while the 1-year inactive supply can be considered the cryptocurrency's inventory. A bear market transition occurs when the Apparent Demand plunges into negative territory on both monthly and yearly timeframes. Currently, the 30-day Apparent Demand has dipped into the negative, signaling a decrease in monthly demand. The annual metric is still positive but trending downward.
Bitcoin ends 2025 in a seemingly contradictory position: structurally stronger, yet tactically bruised. Trading around $87,000 to $88,000, BTC-USD is down about 6% for the year and roughly 30% below its October peak of over $126,000. This price drop has officially pushed Bitcoin into a bear market, even as U.S. equities and precious metals like gold and silver have shown significant gains.
Several factors contributed to this downturn. Bitcoin's price tumbled following the announcement of 100% tariffs on China, resulting in a $19 billion liquidation in 24 hours. Other analysts point to slowing ETF flows, heavy long-term holder selling, and low retail activity as contributing factors.
However, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term value. Despite recent challenges, Bitcoin has managed to maintain a price above $80,000. The broader digital asset complex has undergone a cleansing, with capital rotating away from speculative assets into larger-cap assets like BTC-USD.
Technically, BTC-USD is in a stalemate. Historically, consecutive red months near record highs have been followed by a reset in positioning and a trend move as new capital enters the market. The broader market sentiment is divided, with bears anticipating prices to drift lower into 2026 without a clear catalyst, while bulls view the current situation as a pause in a longer growth story. Macro thinkers see Bitcoin as an insurance asset awaiting the right conditions.
Other indicators offer insight into the potential end of the bear market. A break and close above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) often signals the end of a bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), particularly on longer timeframes, can also help assess buying and selling pressure.
As Bitcoin enters 2026, it faces skepticism and cautious optimism. Monitoring positions against preset allocation limits remains a practical checkpoint for those currently holding Bitcoin.
