As the 30-year Ganga Water Sharing Treaty between India and Bangladesh approaches its expiration in December 2026, both nations have commenced discussions to determine the future of this crucial agreement. Signed on December 12, 1996, by then Indian Prime Minister H. D. Deve Gowda and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, the treaty aimed to ensure an equitable distribution of the Ganga's water during the dry season, from January 1 to May 31.
The treaty replaced previous short-term arrangements and established a framework for cooperation on water sharing. It was designed to ensure water availability for irrigation, ecology, and navigation in both countries, particularly addressing the flow at the Farakka Barrage, which diverts water to sustain the Kolkata Port.
Under the treaty's terms, water sharing is calculated in 10-day intervals during the lean season. If the flow at Farakka is 70,000 cusecs or less, the two countries receive equal shares. When the flow is between 70,000 and 75,000 cusecs, Bangladesh is guaranteed 35,000 cusecs, and India receives the remainder. If the flow exceeds 75,000 cusecs, India is entitled to a minimum of 40,000 cusecs. The treaty also includes an alternate sharing arrangement from March 11 to May 10, where both countries receive 35,000 cusecs in alternate 10-day blocks.
However, the treaty lacks a minimum guarantee clause, offering instead diplomatic consultations in case the flow falls below 50,000 cusecs. A Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) was established to monitor implementation and resolve disputes.
As the treaty nears its end, India is considering a reassessment to reflect current and future demands. India may seek a revised pact to address its rising needs, including increased irrigation in West Bengal and other states, siltation issues at Kolkata Port, and growing urban and industrial demands. Some officials have expressed concerns that the treaty does not adequately address climate variability and seasonal shortages. There are indications that India might pursue a shorter, more flexible treaty, similar to its approach to the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.
Bangladesh, on the other hand, is likely to advocate for a fair share of the Ganga waters, addressing historical grievances and emerging challenges. Bangladeshi stakeholders have criticized the treaty for inadequate enforcement mechanisms and for failing to account for flow variability caused by climate change and upstream water usage in India. The country's position is rooted in the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization, as Bangladesh depends on the Ganga for its agriculture, livelihoods, and ecosystems.
To strengthen its position in the negotiations, Bangladesh may focus on enhancing the technical expertise of its negotiators and investing in hydrological research. It may also seek to build regional cooperation through multilateral frameworks to address transboundary water challenges more effectively.
The negotiations for the treaty's renewal provide an opportunity for both countries to build a more equitable and forward-looking agreement. This requires not only technical expertise and diplomatic skill but also a commitment to fostering trust and collaboration. The success of these negotiations will significantly impact the water-sharing relationship between India and Bangladesh, influencing the management of shared water resources for future generations.
Currently, joint water measurements on the Padma and Ganges rivers have commenced as the treaty enters its final year. Water levels will be measured every ten days from January 1 to May 31, as stipulated in the treaty.
