A recent European report suggests that India's air dominance during Operation Sindoor in May 2025 compelled Pakistan to seek a ceasefire. The report, titled "Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025)," was authored by Adrien Fontanellaz and published by the Centre d'Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM), an independent Swiss military history and strategic studies institution.
Operation Sindoor began on May 7, 2025, when India launched missile strikes on alleged terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan in response to the Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, a charge Pakistan denied. According to India, the strikes targeted infrastructure belonging to militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, avoiding Pakistani military or civilian facilities. Pakistan, however, claimed that the Indian strikes hit civilian areas, including mosques, resulting in casualties.
The four-day conflict saw both sides engaging in border skirmishes and drone strikes. Pakistan retaliated on May 7 by launching mortar shells on Jammu, particularly Poonch, causing civilian casualties and damage to homes and religious sites. As the conflict escalated, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos, claiming to have targeted several Indian military bases. India accused Pakistan of launching missile attacks on Indian air bases, including the Sirsa air base, while Pakistan accused India of attacking Pakistani air bases.
According to the Swiss report, India maintained "escalation dominance" throughout the conflict, preventing Pakistani forces from achieving any decisive operational effect. The report indicates that Indian operations significantly degraded Pakistan's airspace awareness. The Indian Air Force reportedly managed to degrade Pakistan's air defense system and carried out strikes against Pakistan's principal Air Force stations. This, according to some accounts, coerced Islamabad into requesting a ceasefire.
On May 10, 2025, both India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire following hotline communication between their Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs). The United States, specifically Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, claimed to have played a mediating role during the negotiations. The ceasefire has reportedly held, with commercial flights resuming and normalcy returning to both countries.
Some reports suggest that even after the ceasefire, UAVs and small drones intruded into Indian civilian and military areas, but were successfully intercepted. India also reportedly terminated the Indus Waters Treaty, holding it in abeyance until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably stopped supporting cross-border terrorism.
While the European report suggests India's air dominance led to the ceasefire, other analyses point to a more complex situation. Some reports indicate that India suffered "initial losses" during the conflict, though the exact numbers remain unconfirmed. There are also reports that Pakistan is seeking to procure advanced military hardware from China, potentially impacting the future military balance between the two countries.
