Bitcoin's price is currently hovering near $90,000, and analysis from Deribit suggests that options activity is a key factor in keeping it range-bound. Deribit, which commands a substantial share (nearly 90%) of the global crypto options market, exerts considerable influence on Bitcoin's price movements.
The current market scenario is characterized by uncertainty, with both bulls and bears vying for control. Traders appear to be taking a more cautious stance, utilizing put options to protect themselves from potential price declines.
A critical concept in understanding this price stagnation is the "max pain" level, which currently sits at $90,000. This level represents the price at which the majority of options contracts will expire worthless, benefiting the options sellers. Significant put interest exists below $85,000, while substantial call interest lies above $90,000, creating a "wall" that Bitcoin is struggling to breach. Bitcoin has tested the $90,000 level multiple times since November 2025. A recent upward push to $94,500 was labeled a "bull trap" due to resistance around $92,000.
The concentration of open interest in Bitcoin options contracts between $90,000 and $180,000 indicates a bullish sentiment in the medium term. However, the large amount of Bitcoin options creates substantial liquidation risk if momentum reverses sharply.
Other factors are also influencing Bitcoin's price. A recovery in the market is underway, with constructive signals emerging. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows, reversing the distributions seen in December. Stablecoin supply has also expanded, and order book depth has increased. A key level to watch is the $95,000 resistance, which needs to be broken for confirmation of a breakout, while $90,000 has established itself as a support level.
Despite the current stagnation, some analysts predict a rise to between $120,000 and $170,000, based on ETF flows, constrained supply, and improved liquidity. Fundstrat is even more optimistic, suggesting a potential surge to over $400,000. However, other forecasts are less bullish, estimating Bitcoin to reach $81,021 by the end of 2026.
Overall, the price of Bitcoin appears to be influenced by options activity, particularly on Deribit, creating a complex interplay of bullish and bearish pressures around the $90,000 mark.
