Bitcoin's bear market has been a hot topic of debate in early 2026, with analysts offering varied perspectives on its current status and potential trajectory. While some believe the market is nearing its end, others suggest further downside is possible, with potential "real bottom" price levels being discussed.
Conflicting Signals in the Market
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $70,792, reflecting a recent decrease of 1.88% in the past 24 hours. Over the past week, Bitcoin's price has fallen by 17.75%, and its monthly performance shows a 24.20% decrease. The current market capitalization of Bitcoin is $1.41 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $87.88 billion. Bitcoin reached its highest price ever on October 5, 2025, at $126,272.
A recent survey conducted between December 10, 2025, and January 12, 2026, by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, revealed that 26% of institutions consider the market to be in a bear phase, a significant increase from just 2% in the prior survey. However, the same survey indicated that 62% of institutions have either maintained or increased their net long exposure since October, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued. This divergence highlights the complex nature of the current market, where negative sentiment coexists with continued accumulation by institutional investors.
Potential Price Targets and Bear Market Duration
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, has expressed a bullish outlook, arguing that Bitcoin is materially undervalued and that the bear market is nearing its end. Mow referenced analysis from Bitwise's CIO, Matt Hougan, who also believes the crypto winter that began in early 2025 is approaching its final stages.
However, other analysts suggest the bear market may persist. CryptoQuant's research chief, Moreno, anticipates a potential bottoming window emerging around Q3 2026, based on historical patterns and the downturn's early start. Another analyst, Cowen, has also pointed towards October 2026 as a possible timeframe for a major market low.
In the event of further breakdowns, some analysts are pointing towards $50,000 as a potential "real bottom" for Bitcoin. Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin has broken down from a short-term horizontal trend channel, signaling continued weakness and a lack of support in the price chart. Bitcoin's price has declined 23% since falling below its 365-day moving average on November 12, 2025.
Institutional Activity and Market Dynamics
Despite the bearish sentiment, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains significant. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has exposed the cryptocurrency to a wider range of institutional asset managers. This activity suggests that the current bear market is not characterized by widespread capitulation but rather by "regime recognition while maintaining structural exposure".
Predictions
Despite the recent downturn, some statistical models project Bitcoin could trade between $70,644.26 and $86,342.98 by the end of 2026, with an average projection near $78,493.62. Other estimates vary considerably.
Overall, the Bitcoin market in early 2026 presents a mixed picture. While a significant portion of institutions recognize the bear market, many continue to accumulate Bitcoin, viewing it as undervalued. The duration of the bear market remains uncertain, with some analysts anticipating a bottom in late 2026, while others believe it may be nearing its end.