The relationship between China and India is experiencing a thaw, marked by diplomatic engagements and a renewed focus on cooperation. However, the underlying issues that have strained the relationship in recent years have not disappeared, suggesting the potential for future flashpoints.

Recent Developments

Several key events signal a potential improvement in China-India relations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin marked his first trip to the country in seven years. On the sidelines of the summit, Modi met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, their first interaction since October 2024. Both leaders pledged to resolve border disputes and enhance cooperation. This meeting, along with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to India in August 2025, suggests a desire from both sides to ease tensions. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal stated that India-China relations are gradually normalizing as border issues are resolved.

Areas of Progress

Some concrete steps have been taken to improve the relationship. India and China have agreed to resume direct passenger flights, reopen border trade, and encourage investment flows. These measures aim to boost tourism, trade, and cargo flows. There have also been reports of reduced friction between forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), with agreements allowing grazers to access pastures in disputed areas and preventing heated exchanges over stray cattle.

Persistent Flashpoints

Despite these positive developments, significant challenges remain. The border dispute, which led to a deadly clash in 2020, is yet to be resolved. While both sides have expressed a commitment to finding a "fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable" solution, disagreements over the LAC persist. India seeks a return to the "peace and tranquility" that existed before 2020, while China prefers to decouple border issues from the overall bilateral relationship.

Economic issues also present a potential source of friction. India has a large trade deficit with China, which is a source of frustration for New Delhi. Additionally, competition for influence in neighboring countries and differing views on global issues could create new points of contention.

Geopolitical Context

The evolving geopolitical landscape is also influencing China-India relations. Rising tensions between the United States and both India and China have created an incentive for the two Asian giants to recalibrate their ties. Some analysts believe that US tariffs on Indian goods and scrutiny over relationships with Russia have contributed to the warming of relations between China and India. However, it is important to note that the improvement in China-India relations is not solely a result of US-India tensions, but also reflects a broader strategic consensus and a desire for mutual benefit.

Future Prospects

While the recent thaw in China-India relations is encouraging, it is too early to declare a lasting rapprochement. The fundamental grievances and unresolved issues between the two countries mean that the risk of future standoffs and skirmishes cannot be discounted. However, both sides recognize the importance of a stable and cooperative relationship for regional and global stability. As long as China and India remain committed to dialogue and focus on areas of mutual interest, there is potential for continued improvement in their relations.