The recent clash between India and Pakistan, dubbed "Operation Sindoor," is providing a critical moment of reflection for China's defense industry, akin to the stir caused by DeepSeek in the AI sector. The conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in Chinese-supplied weapon systems, raising questions about their reliability and combat effectiveness. This comes at a time when China is aggressively seeking to position itself as a credible alternative to Western and Russian arms suppliers.
Underperformance of Chinese Weapons
Several reports indicate the underperformance of Chinese-supplied weapons used by Pakistan during the conflict. These include the PL-15 air-to-air missile and the HQ-9 air defense system. The PL-15, touted as a rival to the American AIM-120D, either missed targets or malfunctioned. The HQ-9 air defense system also failed to intercept Indian aircraft or missiles. This has led to serious doubts among potential buyers regarding the effectiveness of Chinese military hardware.
Impact on China's Arms Exports
The conflict is expected to have a significant impact on China's weapon exports, potentially crushing its dream of becoming a major arms exporter. This is because Pakistan relies heavily on Chinese military equipment, with nearly 80% of its arms imports coming from China. The underperformance of these weapons has tarnished China's image as a reliable arms exporter.
Chinese defense stocks also saw significant declines. This shift occurred after initial gains driven by anticipated increases in arms sales to Pakistan during heightened tensions with India. The failure of Chinese-made weapons to protect Pakistan became increasingly clear as more details of the conflict emerged.
China's DeepSeek Moment
The situation is being compared to the "DeepSeek moment" in China's tech industry. DeepSeek is an AI reasoning model developed by a Chinese startup that rivaled OpenAI at a fraction of the cost. Similarly, the India-Pakistan clash is forcing a reassessment of Beijing's military capacity and its potential to rise as an arms exporter.
China has been integrating artificial intelligence into its aerospace industry, utilizing tools like DeepSeek to develop next-generation combat aircraft. DeepSeek is being used in the design process of new warplanes, accelerating analysis and providing innovative solutions to technical challenges. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has also started using DeepSeek for non-combat support functions, especially in military hospitals.
Geopolitical Implications
The India-Pakistan conflict has broader geopolitical implications. Some analysts view the conflict as a proxy war, with China supporting Pakistan against India. The close military relationship between China and Pakistan, including defense interoperability, is also a factor. This interoperability extends to fighter jets, missile technology, data linking, and electronic warfare.
Different Narratives
There are conflicting narratives surrounding the conflict. Pakistan claimed that its Chinese J-10C planes shot down five Indian jets, including three Rafales. However, India has not confirmed this claim. Some Chinese analysts argue that Pakistan's adoption of China's "system-defined operations," which connects fighters, radar, missiles, and command networks, was key to its defense. Others point to the failure of Chinese equipment during the conflict.
Future Outlook
The India-Pakistan clash presents both challenges and opportunities for China's defense industry. The underperformance of Chinese weapons has raised concerns about their reliability, but China's integration of AI into military technology could provide a competitive edge. The conflict may also lead to a reassessment of China's role in international security and its relationships with countries like Pakistan.
