The geopolitical landscape of South Asia is witnessing a significant shift as China accelerates the construction of the Mohmand Dam in Pakistan, following India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). This move, analyzed by Palki Sharma on Firstpost's "Vantage," signals a potential realignment of regional power dynamics and raises concerns about water security and stability.
India's decision to suspend the IWT on April 23, 2025, came in the wake of a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, attributed to Pakistan-backed militants. Citing national security concerns and alleging Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism, India effectively put the decades-old water-sharing agreement in abeyance. The IWT, signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, had long been considered a cornerstone of regional stability, governing the distribution of water from the Indus River and its tributaries between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty, India controls the waters of the eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej), while Pakistan has rights over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab).
In response to India's suspension of the treaty, Pakistan has turned to its long-time ally, China, for support. Beijing has swiftly moved to fast-track the Mohmand Dam project, located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of northwestern Pakistan. The dam, being constructed by the state-owned China Energy Engineering Corporation, is designed to be a multi-purpose facility, aimed at flood control, irrigation, power generation, and water supply. Once completed, it is expected to generate 800 MW of electricity and provide 300 million gallons per day of drinking water to the city of Peshawar. Concrete filling on the Mohmand Dam has begun. This is a “critical construction milestone”, which marks an “accelerated development phase” for what Beijing has called a “national flagship project” for Pakistan
China's acceleration of the Mohmand Dam project is seen as a clear demonstration of solidarity with Pakistan and a strategic move to strengthen its influence in the region. The project is a key component of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship initiative under Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By investing in Pakistan's water infrastructure, China is not only bolstering its ally's water security but also deepening its economic and political ties with Islamabad.
The developments raise several critical questions about the future of water management and regional security in South Asia. India's suspension of the IWT has sparked concerns about potential disruptions to Pakistan's water supply, which is heavily reliant on the Indus River system. With India now having greater flexibility in managing the river's flow, there are fears that it could use water as a strategic tool to exert pressure on Pakistan. India decided to stop the flow of water on the Chenab River from the Baglihar Dam as a "short-term punitive action". It also decided to carry out reservoir flushing in order to boost the reservoir holding capacity of Salal and Baglihar projects.
China's involvement in Pakistan's water infrastructure projects adds another layer of complexity to the situation. While the Mohmand Dam is not directly on the Indus River, it feeds into the river system and is crucial to Pakistan's water security. As China expands its role in Pakistan's water sector, it could potentially gain greater influence over the region's water resources, which could have implications for India's water strategy and regional stability. The Diamer-Bhasha Dam on the Indus River near Chilas is also being developed with China’s help to boost Pakistan's water storage capacity.
The situation calls for careful consideration and a diplomatic approach to ensure that water resources are managed sustainably and equitably, and that regional stability is maintained.
