Amidst escalating tensions, India is preparing to intensify its stance on water sharing with Pakistan, potentially triggering a new crisis in the already strained relationship between the two nations. This development follows India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in April 2025, a historic agreement that has governed the distribution of the Indus River and its tributaries for over six decades.

The suspension of the treaty came in response to a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which India blamed on Pakistan. New Delhi has asserted that it will not restore the treaty and intends to divert water flowing to Pakistan for internal use. This move has been described by some experts as India threatening to weaponize water in its conflict with Pakistan.

Background of the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, divides the six rivers of the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan. Under the treaty, India has control over the three eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—while Pakistan controls the three western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. The treaty grants India limited rights to non-consumptive uses of the western rivers, such as navigation, power generation, and agriculture.

India's Actions and Intentions

Since suspending the IWT, India has taken several steps to increase its control over the Indus waters. These include carrying out flushing and desilting of its dams to increase storage capacity and improve the efficiency of its hydropower projects. India has also reportedly lowered sluice gates at the Baglihar Dam, reducing the downstream flow to Pakistan through the Chenab River.

India's decision to suspend the IWT and divert water to its own use is driven by several factors. These include changing demographics, increasing water and energy requirements, the need for climate change disaster mitigation, and concerns about cross-border terrorism. Some Indian commentators have argued that the treaty was overly generous to Pakistan, granting it access to a disproportionate share of the Indus waters.

Pakistan's Concerns and Response

Pakistan has strongly condemned India's actions, calling the suspension of the IWT an "act of war". Islamabad maintains that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended or terminated and that any attempt to block or divert water flowing to Pakistan would be a violation of international law. Pakistani officials have warned that the water dispute could collapse the ceasefire between the two countries and potentially lead to renewed hostilities.

Pakistan has also raised the issue at the international level, seeking mediation and legal recourse. The Permanent Court of Arbitration has stated that the IWT does not provide for unilateral suspension and that the court has jurisdiction over disputes arising under the treaty.

Potential Consequences

The escalating water dispute between India and Pakistan has the potential for serious consequences. If India significantly reduces the flow of water to Pakistan, it could have devastating effects on Pakistan's agriculture, economy, and water security. This could lead to increased social unrest and instability in Pakistan.

The dispute could also further escalate tensions between the two countries, potentially leading to military conflict. Given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, any escalation carries significant risks. The international community has urged both sides to return to dialogue and resolve the issue peacefully.

The Path Forward

Finding a resolution to the water dispute will require both India and Pakistan to demonstrate flexibility and a willingness to compromise. Experts have suggested that the IWT needs to be updated to address the challenges of climate change, population growth, and other contemporary issues. A revised treaty should also ensure equitable water sharing and effective dispute resolution mechanisms.

In the long run, a cooperative approach to water management is essential for ensuring peace and stability in the region. This will require building trust, improving communication, and working together to address the shared challenges of water scarcity and climate change.