Bitcoin is showing signs of mirroring the "demand generation" phase observed at the market bottom in 2022, sparking speculation about a potential surge to new highs. On-chain data suggests a significant Bitcoin price rally may be in the works, while short-term price weakness indicates a lack of new buyers.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out a pattern where the 30-day moving average of stablecoin inflows has dipped into negative territory, creating "blue zones" similar to those seen in 2022. This suggests that participants are not eager to sell, signaling a return of demand amidst suppressed volatility. Adler stated that if inflows maintain or surpass levels seen post-LUNA and FTX, it would strongly indicate the launchpad for the next Bitcoin rally.
Despite Bitcoin's strength above $100,000, new user activity remains relatively low. The New UTXO 30-day SMA, a proxy for new network activity, is near 570,000, about 40% lower than when Bitcoin traded between $60,000 and $70,000. It's also far from the 850,000–1 million range that supported the 2024 bull run. This divergence suggests long-term holders are locking up coins, creating a supply squeeze where prices could rapidly rise if new demand emerges. A move past 700,000 on the New UTXO metric would signal fresh participant entry, and climbing beyond 850,000 could confirm a full-blown retail and institutional-driven bull phase.
Several analysts have offered bullish Bitcoin price predictions for 2025. Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. Bitwise suggests Bitcoin's fair value could reach as high as $230,000 by the end of 2025. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, indicates an 87% probability that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high before October 2025. Factors such as institutional adoption, growing mainstream interest, and Bitcoin's limited supply contribute to these optimistic predictions.
Analysts from VanEck, Fundstrat, and Standard Chartered forecast a 2025 BTC top between $180,000 and $250,000, citing institutional adoption and historical market cycles. Rising global liquidity and record spot BTC ETF inflows have reinforced Bitcoin analysts' most bullish price projections.
MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor has boldly declared that Bitcoin is "going to $1 million," basing his prediction on fundamental supply-demand mathematics. Only 450 Bitcoin become available daily through mining, worth approximately $50 million at current prices.
Several factors are expected to influence Bitcoin's price in 2025:
Despite the bullish outlook, potential risks could disrupt Bitcoin's path to a new all-time high:
The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a resurgence, with Bitcoin leading the charge. The convergence of factors like growing institutional adoption, positive regulatory developments, and a potential supply squeeze suggests a promising outlook for Bitcoin in 2025. While risks remain, the prevailing sentiment points towards a potential climb to new highs.
