The issue of the Dalai Lama's succession has become a significant point of contention between the Tibetan spiritual community and the Chinese government. The current Dalai Lama, who will turn 90 on July 6th, 2025, has been addressing the complex matter of his reincarnation, sparking a reaction from Beijing, which insists on its authority to approve the next Dalai Lama.
In a recent video message broadcast at a religious gathering in Dharamshala, India, the Dalai Lama stated that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, a non-profit organization he founded in 2015, will have the sole authority to recognize his future reincarnation. He emphasized that the search for his successor should be carried out in accordance with past traditions, without interference from any other entity. This declaration is seen as a direct challenge to China's long-standing claim that it alone has the right to approve the next Dalai Lama.
China's position is rooted in a 2007 law mandating that all reincarnations of Tibetan "living Buddhas" must be approved by the state. Chinese officials have repeatedly stated that the next Dalai Lama must be born inside China, and any successor appointed outside of this framework would be considered illegitimate. Furthermore, China advocates for the "golden urn" system, an 18th-century Qing Dynasty method where names of candidates are placed in a golden vessel and one is selected by lot. The Dalai Lama, however, has criticized this method, arguing that it lacks "spiritual quality".
The Dalai Lama has also hinted that his reincarnation will be born outside of China, in the "free world", so that the traditional mission of the Dalai Lama can continue. He fled Tibet in 1959 after a failed uprising against Chinese rule and has been living in exile in Dharamshala, India, ever since. There, he helped establish a democratic government-in-exile while advocating for autonomy for the Tibetan people.
China's insistence on controlling the reincarnation process is viewed by many as a political maneuver to legitimize its rule in Tibet and to neutralize the Tibetan independence movement. Critics argue that it is a direct assault on religious freedom and the right of Tibetan Buddhists to choose their spiritual leaders without coercion. Amnesty International's China Director, Sarah Brooks, stated that the Chinese authorities' efforts are a "direct assault on the right to freedom of religion or belief".
The succession of the Dalai Lama is not just a religious matter, but also a geopolitical issue with international implications. India, which hosts the Tibetan government-in-exile, is likely to support the Dalai Lama's right to determine his successor. The U.S. government has also indicated that it would respond with sanctions to any interference by the Chinese government in the process.
The possibility of two competing Dalai Lamas – one chosen by the Tibetan Buddhist community and one by the Chinese government – is a real concern. This has already happened with the Panchen Lama, the second-highest spiritual leader in Tibetan Buddhism. In 1995, the Dalai Lama recognized Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th Panchen Lama, but he was subsequently taken away by Chinese officials and has not been seen since. China then appointed its own candidate, Gyaltsen Norbu, a move widely rejected by Tibetan Buddhists.
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, the battle over his succession intensifies. His recent statements have reaffirmed his commitment to the continuation of the Dalai Lama lineage and have asserted the right of the Tibetan Buddhist community to choose its own spiritual leader. However, China remains firm in its stance, setting the stage for a complex and potentially turbulent transition that will have far-reaching consequences for Tibet and the Tibetan people.
