Ethereum (ETH) enthusiasts are vocally advocating for the cryptocurrency to reach $3,000, but recent data suggests that professional traders are taking a more cautious approach to their ETH positions. While "ETH maxis" express unwavering confidence, a deeper look into market indicators reveals a nuanced picture.
Currently, Ethereum is showing signs of renewed strength, trading around $2,813.85 on July 10, 2025, up 3.58% in the last 24 hours. Several analysts point to growing momentum from spot ETFs, supply reduction, and key network upgrades as drivers for potential further gains. Many traders anticipate Ethereum will reclaim the $3,000 level, a mark not seen since early 2024, within the month. Some even foresee ETH closing out 2025 between $3,500 and $6,000.
However, this bullish outlook is tempered by several factors. Sluggish spot volume, despite soaring open interest in ETH perpetual futures, indicates that much of the recent price increase may be fueled by leverage rather than genuine demand. This raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally.
Technical analysis reveals a mixed bag of signals. Ethereum has established a bullish base after climbing 6.6% this week and surpassing $2,600. The price has reclaimed the 200-day moving average, a key sign of medium-term strength. A clean break above the $2,800 resistance could trigger a run towards $3,000. However, the presence of a rising wedge formation on the 4-hour chart suggests that a breakdown is possible if bulls fail to maintain upward pressure. A break below the $2,500-$2,550 region could signal a drop towards $2,300.
Derivatives data also reflects this cautious sentiment. While the premium on Ether futures has risen, it remains below the neutral threshold, indicating that investors are not yet fully bullish. The Ether delta skew suggests that whales are still hedging against potential downside risk.
Moreover, the launch of spot Ether ETFs, while a positive development, has not been a guaranteed boon. In early April 2025, these ETFs experienced net outflows, contributing to a lack of enthusiasm among professional traders. However, more recently, spot Ethereum ETFs experienced positive inflows, increasing their total net inflows to $4.72 billion.
External factors, such as macroeconomic conditions and regulatory uncertainty, also play a significant role. Uncertainty surrounding interest rates or weaker-than-expected demand for decentralized apps could hinder Ethereum's progress.
Despite the short-term caution, many analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for Ethereum. The increasing amount of ETH locked in staking reduces sell-side pressure and contributes to a long-term supply squeeze. Upgrades like the Dencun and Proto-Danksharding enhance the network's scalability and utility. Continued institutional interest, as evidenced by inflows into ETH ETFs, provides further support.
Ultimately, whether Ethereum reaches $3,000 in the near term remains uncertain. While some analysts predict targets between $5,000 and $6,500 by the end of 2025, a more gradual rally throughout the remainder of the year is also a possibility. For Ethereum to achieve these targets, a successful breakout above $3,000, continued strength in staking and ecosystem development, and favorable market conditions are necessary.
