Bitcoin advocate Udi Wertheimer has recently presented a compelling argument for why Bitcoin could reach $400,000 by the end of 2025, a price target that he considers "potentially conservative". Wertheimer's thesis revolves around a "generational run" driven by a significant shift in Bitcoin ownership, from early adopters to institutional investors.

Wertheimer argues that Bitcoin has undergone a "full-scale rotation of ownership," where early holders, or "whales," who historically dictated market trends, have largely sold their holdings. These coins, he suggests, have been acquired by institutions such as ETFs (like BlackRock's IBIT), corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds. Unlike the early holders, these new players are allocating capital with less sensitivity to price levels. They are driven by a structural need to continuously acquire Bitcoin, often to preserve or enhance the value of their business models. Michael Saylor's strategy is a prime example: his company's value proposition would collapse if it stopped buying Bitcoin, creating a continuous demand regardless of price fluctuations.

Wertheimer draws a parallel between the current Bitcoin cycle and Dogecoin's surge between 2019 and 2021. He notes how initial skepticism from crypto insiders was followed by a massive rally fueled by retail momentum, overwhelming the remaining legacy supply. He believes Bitcoin is now experiencing a similar dynamic, with traditional capital market participants pouring dollars into Bitcoin without regard for previous cycle highs.

This influx of "forced buyers" is reshaping the supply dynamics of the Bitcoin market. As old holders rotate out, a potential supply crunch is emerging. With fewer sellers and more consistent buyers, the market is moving towards a state where upward price momentum could become the norm. Wertheimer emphasizes that the broader market is largely overlooking this structural shift, despite its potential to create explosive price action.

Wertheimer's analysis extends to the altcoin market, particularly Ethereum. He suggests that Ethereum's dominance may decline as Bitcoin absorbs unprecedented institutional inflows. He predicts that the ETH/BTC ratio will continue to decline, and that it would take years for incoming treasury-style buyers to absorb the legacy supply before Ethereum could stage a true breakout. He urges immediate Bitcoin accumulation, stating that waiting for price dips is now futile.

While a $400,000 Bitcoin price tag may seem ambitious, Wertheimer insists it's a conservative estimate based on current buying behavior. He anticipates a second, even larger wave of repricing once widespread belief in Bitcoin's potential sets in. He believes that many are underexposed to Bitcoin because they didn't realize that Wall Street was buying up all the available Bitcoin. The more these entities buy, the higher the price goes, and the more capital they can raise, creating a reflexive dynamic.