Following a tumultuous August marked by significant monsoon-related disruptions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast for a wetter-than-normal September across India. This prediction arrives on the heels of an August that saw the highest rainfall in northwest India since 2001, accompanied by devastating floods and landslides in several states.

The IMD's forecast indicates that the monthly average rainfall for September 2025 is likely to exceed 109% of the long-term average (LPA) of 167.9 mm. Most regions are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some areas in the northeast and east, many parts of extreme southern peninsular India, and certain pockets of northwest India may experience below-normal rainfall.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra cautioned that the anticipated heavy rainfall could trigger landslides and flash floods, particularly in vulnerable areas like Uttarakhand. He highlighted the risk of overflowing rivers impacting downstream cities and towns, emphasizing the need for preparedness. The IMD has also warned of potential disruptions in South Haryana, Delhi, and North Rajasthan.

Northwest India, which witnessed exceptionally high rainfall in August, is expected to receive more rain in September. The region recorded 260.5 mm of rainfall in August, exceeding the normal by 34.4%. South Peninsular India also experienced above-normal rainfall during this period, recording 250.6 mm of rainfall, which is 31% above normal.

The expected above-normal rainfall in September is attributed to the southwest monsoon remaining vigorous. The IMD had initially forecasted an above-normal monsoon season in April, predicting rainfall to be 105% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The monsoon's arrival was earlier than expected in some states, with the IMD accurately forecasting its onset between mid-May and the end of June. By June 29, the monsoon had covered the entire country, nine days ahead of schedule.

The anticipated surplus rainfall in September poses both opportunities and challenges. It is expected to benefit agriculture and water resources. The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), crucial for rainfed agriculture, is also projected to receive above-normal rainfall, potentially boosting the Kharif cropping season. However, there are concerns that the excessive rainfall may harm standing kharif crops due to lodging and inundation.

The IMD has stressed the importance of reinforcing infrastructure, utilizing early warnings, enhancing surveillance and conservation efforts, and establishing robust response systems to manage the potential risks associated with heavy rainfall, including flooding, landslides, transport disruptions, public health challenges, and ecosystem damage. The department will continue monitoring monsoon trends and issuing updates to aid planning in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.

Notably, the monsoon season this year has been influenced by climate change, with an increased frequency of western disturbances contributing to extreme weather events. These disturbances, originating in the Mediterranean region, have been intensified by the warming of West Asia and the Arctic.