The recent unrest in Bangladesh is a significant cause for worry for India, stemming from a complex interplay of political instability, economic anxieties, and rising anti-India sentiment. The death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a leader of the Inqilab Moncho and a vocal critic of Indian influence, has sparked widespread protests that have quickly escalated into violence, targeting media houses, cultural institutions, and even Indian diplomatic missions. This situation is further complicated by the upcoming national elections and the shifting political landscape following the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024.
One of the primary concerns for India is the potential for increased cross-border terrorism and smuggling. With a porous border of approximately 4,096 km, the unrest creates an environment conducive to illegal activities such as drug and arms trafficking, as well as cattle smuggling. Moreover, the rise of radical Islamist groups within Bangladesh, some of which have links to terrorist organizations based in Pakistan, poses a direct threat to India's internal security. These groups could exploit the instability to expand their operations and potentially carry out attacks in India.
The anti-India rhetoric accompanying the protests is also a major cause for concern. Demonstrators have accused India of meddling in Bangladesh's political affairs and expressed resentment towards perceived Indian hegemony. This sentiment is being fueled by certain political factions seeking to gain leverage in the upcoming elections. The targeting of Indian diplomatic establishments and the calls for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina, who is currently seeking refuge in India, further exacerbate the situation.
Economically, the unrest could disrupt the strong trade relations between the two countries. Bangladesh is India's largest trading partner in South Asia, and any instability there could lead to a standstill in exports and imports, affecting various sectors such as textiles, agriculture, and engineering. For instance, the textile and yarn business in Surat, India, has already been impacted due to the disruption in orders and payments. Furthermore, the violence and uncertainty could prompt international importers to diversify away from Bangladesh, potentially benefiting India but requiring strategic efforts to improve its footprint in the textile trade.
From India's perspective, the current situation is its most serious strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the Liberation War of 1971. The rise of new radical forces, coupled with increased engagement from China and Pakistan, threatens to shift Bangladesh's political and strategic orientation. India's challenge lies in addressing immediate security concerns while also preparing for a potential long-term realignment in its relationship with Bangladesh. Some experts suggest that China and Pakistan are trying to leverage the unrest to diminish India's influence in the region.
To navigate this complex situation, India needs to adopt a multi-faceted approach. This includes strengthening border security to prevent cross-border terrorism and smuggling, engaging in diplomatic efforts to address anti-India sentiment, and supporting the interim government in restoring peace and stability. It is also crucial for India to carefully calibrate its relationship with all political stakeholders in Bangladesh and avoid being perceived as favoring any particular faction. By doing so, India can safeguard its strategic interests and maintain a stable and mutually beneficial relationship with its eastern neighbor. Former Deputy National Security Advisor, Pankaj Saran, has emphasized that both countries "must not allow any forces to disrupt" the "natural relationship" between them, cautioning against inflammatory actions and statements.
