India's imports of Russian crude oil are set to decline sharply in December 2025, reaching their lowest level since December 2022. According to Kpler, imports are expected to fall to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, a significant drop from 1.84 million bpd in November. This decrease reflects short-term disruptions rather than a fundamental shift in India's sourcing patterns.
Several factors have contributed to this decline. The United States' sanctions on major Russian oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, have played a significant role. These sanctions have complicated procurement for Indian importers, leading them to reduce their intake of Russian barrels. Additionally, pressure from the U.S. and the impact of European Union (EU) sanctions on Russian-linked product flows have also contributed to the drop.
Tighter EU restrictions and expanded U.S. secondary sanctions have increased compliance risks for Indian refiners. In mid-2025, the EU lowered the price cap on seaborne Russian crude to curb Moscow's oil revenues, intensifying the pressure. The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, further complicating procurement for Indian importers. These companies accounted for nearly 60% of Russia's oil exports to India in FY25.
The decline is largely attributed to reduced intake from major buyers, particularly Reliance Industries and the New Mangalore refinery, both of which have significantly scaled back Russian crude purchases during the month. Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, paused purchases after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in late October. However, Reliance has now resumed buying from suppliers that are not on the sanctions list. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. took no Russian barrels in December for the first time since September 2022.
In response to these challenges, Indian refiners have shifted their sourcing to non-designated Russian entities and alternative suppliers across the Middle East, West Africa, and the Americas. Indian refiners continue to purchase Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities. Alternative sellers such as Tatneft, Redwood Global Supply, Rusexport, Morexport, and Alghaf Marine are expanding their trading footprint.
Despite the decline in December, Russia remained India's largest oil supplier, although its share fell to less than a quarter of all oil imports, from about a third in November. India's overall crude oil imports climbed 0.2% to 21.06 million metric tons in November, reaching a seven-month high.
Experts anticipate that India's Russian crude imports will gradually recover from January 2026 as new intermediaries step in and supply chains re-establish. While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact, and Russian barrels are expected to retain a structural presence in India's crude slate given pricing economics, refinery compatibility, and limited near-term alternatives.
