XRP is currently facing a potential downturn, with analysts suggesting a possible 25% drop to $1.55. Several factors contribute to this bearish outlook, including technical indicators, market sentiment, and on-chain data.
As of November 19, 2025, XRP is trading around $2.10, already down from its recent high of $3.66 reached in July. Technical analysis reveals a descending channel pattern on the daily chart, with XRP testing the $2.10-$2.20 support zone. A break below this zone could lead to a rapid decline toward $1.80. Further bearish signals include the 200-day and 100-day moving averages converging around $2.60, acting as resistance. XRP would need to reclaim $2.60 to signal a sustained bullish recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also falling towards oversold territory, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has maintained a sell signal since Sunday.
Market sentiment also weighs on XRP's price. A recent Glassnode report indicates that 42% of current XRP wallets accumulated their tokens near the $3 mark, leaving many holders with losses exceeding 40%. Prolonged unrealized losses can trigger capitulation, adding further pressure to the market. Many investors entered the market during the post-SEC rally, driven by partial legal wins, and are now "deep in the red". If the broader market continues to slide, this group of underwater holders may start exiting, exacerbating the decline.
Low retail demand and weak derivatives markets further contribute to the bearish outlook. Following a deleveraging event in October that liquidated over $19 billion in crypto assets, retail demand for XRP has not recovered. Data from CoinGlass shows that the futures Open Interest (OI) is below the levels recorded earlier in November, indicating a lack of confidence among investors. A steady increase in OI is needed to support XRP's short-term recovery.
Despite the potential for a 25% drop, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP's long-term prospects. The upcoming launch of multiple XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States offers a potential catalyst, unlocking institutional demand once market conditions stabilize. Analyst projects XRP to reach $2.652265 by 2030. However, in the short term, XRP faces significant headwinds that could drive its price down to $1.55 or even lower. Technical analysis suggests XRP could decline to $1.25, representing the yearly minimum and 100% Fibonacci extension from July peaks to October lows. Crypto analyst predicts extreme capitulation to $1.
Investors should closely monitor XRP's price action around the $2.10-$2.20 support zone. A break below this level would confirm the bearish outlook and increase the likelihood of a further decline. Conversely, a successful defense of this support and a move above the $2.60 resistance could signal a potential trend reversal.
